Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94d2eb8e7bc5a023e30c047533b24364f42e81bd7c51315e4cb7b109da34e96e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb42…432abacked No | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf676…4b80backed No | 1c | 1,889$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x734a…768fbacked No | 1c | 1,596$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…b962backed No | 1c | 1,508$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 6c | 1,463$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.49 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…7d31backed No | 1c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…0337backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 74c | 716.09$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.92 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f20…1855backed No | 2c | 551.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192b…709fbacked No | 2c | 540.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…b13ebacked No | 51c | 499.99$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked No | 8c | 455.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 17c | 363.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -5.3wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a7…2e3cbacked No | 71c | 280.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91c3…0783backed No | 8c | 265.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 71c | 234.56$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffce…e88bbacked Yes | 49c | 215$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.65 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 29c | 199.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…38b6backed No | 58c | 171.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.27 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked No | 23c | 170$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 21c | 140$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 28c | 104.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.01 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa431…677fbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 32c | 95.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 45c | 91.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5d…720ebacked No | 28c | 90.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1727…dac2backed No | 59c | 82.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…304dbacked No | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…14f5backed No | 45c | 74.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…78c9backed Yes | 45c | 66.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…8332backed No | 53c | 59.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 41c | 55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47cc…5668backed Yes | 62c | 48.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 33cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 44c | 45.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5b…fe7dbacked Yes | 75c | 39.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…4a00backed No | 56c | 38.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c9…5ab2backed No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c97…982abacked No | 39c | 35.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc3…7dafbacked Yes | 44c | 32.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4336…b9d2backed No | 64c | 31.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…de20backed No | 75c | 29.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc61c…9314backed No | 71c | 28.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…34c6backed Yes | 68c | 27.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 54c | 25.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17fa…1f89backed No | 46c | 24.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7b…a54bbacked Yes | 43c | 23.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…5628backed No | 62c | 22.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 62c | 20.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…fd3ebacked Yes | 73c | 20.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecca…6a15backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…1451backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +58%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +10.0wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xac5a…683dbacked No | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.