Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c59edb6bbfa6fd5fa9f77efe9e53df34b21e184157e80abd019c4780dba4240
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8063…b886backed Yes | 10c | 2,116$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.86 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 41cpaid | +188.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed Yes | 4c | 2,108$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc68d…ec12backed No | 74c | 1,997$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 1,715$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 27c | 1,400$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 21c | 784.17$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.97 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 80c | 772.51$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.17 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 11c | 643.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.08 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 22c | 459.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf12…d81cbacked Yes | 9c | 452.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 17c | 429.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 12c | 404.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 15c | 355.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…184dbacked No | 64c | 314.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1478…d3aebacked No | 77c | 288.63$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 17c | 208.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…88dfbacked Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…0ec4backed No | 73c | 176.78$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 34c | 166.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdf…c675backed Yes | 31c | 160.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…77adbacked Yes | 36c | 158.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe656…448abacked No | 79c | 151.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3d47backed No | 67c | 150$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 28c | 148.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xede9…d9b0backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x679d…40efbacked Yes | 13c | 119.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76dd…0e54backed No | 76c | 106.76$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 19c | 106.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77a0…113bbacked Yes | 57c | 105.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 53cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7642…422dbacked No | 57c | 102.69$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…948abacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…d562backed No | 60c | 94.62$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63fa…1726backed Yes | 30c | 73.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 26c | 64.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 73c | 63.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…5e8fbacked Yes | 31c | 59.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e3…79abbacked No | 74c | 53.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 27c | 52.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 50.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…6a5ebacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…4e62backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked Yes | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 70c | 40.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3aec…22a9backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 31c | 34.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…23c5backed No | 60c | 33.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…b0e4backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…2fb3backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc61c…9314backed No | 70c | 28.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2fac…284bbacked No | 73c | 27.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…8aeebacked No | 78c | 25.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 65c | 20.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef6b…4e51backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d89…36f5backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed No | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.