Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d707290e2bcac01d0519d2d17bf3ba6360e630cb503a432def3dc39c1c9a0d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 257 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56fa…d820backed Yes | 1c | 4,707$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…9573backed No | 74c | 2,702$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…5ba1backed Yes | 4c | 2,568$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.53 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…990dbacked Yes | 41c | 1,501$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked No | 58c | 1,475$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.1 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…7f61backed No | 58c | 1,417$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b8…0ec1backed No | 59c | 1,336$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ae…e13abacked Yes | 42c | 1,334$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…973dbacked No | 59c | 1,284$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a1…2d87backed Yes | 41c | 1,282$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b7…d913backed Yes | 41c | 1,261$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 41c | 1,219$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.79 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,214$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed Yes | 41c | 1,187$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.67 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…6e13backed No | 59c | 1,173$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…6569backed No | 57c | 1,100$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 28c | 1,100$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…7de5backed Yes | 41c | 1,031$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48b2…ea4ebacked No | 59c | 996$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 68cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…f0b5backed No | 59c | 968$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…deaebacked Yes | 42c | 948$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2145…1e5dbacked No | 57c | 941$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.63 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…4ca3backed Yes | 41c | 935$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…5afdbacked Yes | 42c | 933$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…77adbacked Yes | 42c | 917.12$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed Yes | 41c | 894$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked No | 59c | 878$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.98 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…a794backed Yes | 41c | 870$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 23c | 860.56$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.25 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 25c | 831.25$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.08 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…3734backed No | 59c | 820$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2103…e296backed Yes | 41c | 814$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0acc…debabacked No | 59c | 808$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…8e46backed No | 59c | 804$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…0918backed No | 59c | 804$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.45 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaf…4bd2backed No | 58c | 795$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 44cpaid | +147.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…6284backed Yes | 41c | 788$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked No | 58c | 786$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 20c | 779.67$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.06 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed Yes | 35c | 776.29$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506a…1b43backed Yes | 41c | 776$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad04…dce5backed Yes | 41c | 776$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…78cbbacked Yes | 41c | 755$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 6c | 741.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…fb12backed No | 59c | 710$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 41c | 702$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.82 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…b9b4backed No | 59c | 696.59$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…4c53backed No | 59c | 696$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…c2dfbacked Yes | 41c | 682$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73df…ba67backed No | 59c | 634$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked No | 59c | 628$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.48 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…1f63backed No | 59c | 611$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +129%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbd…17c9backed Yes | 41c | 610$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 599.98$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4189…a03bbacked Yes | 20c | 594.37$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.61 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5baa…0ec6backed Yes | 41c | 589$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…98e8backed Yes | 41c | 566$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcabd…3764backed Yes | 43c | 551$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.93 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 18c | 547.17$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.06 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…0eb2backed Yes | 41c | 542$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.22 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e96…c895backed No | 59c | 527$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…2ad5backed Yes | 41c | 519$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…391abacked Yes | 43c | 501$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76fd…e8c4backed No | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 19c | 500$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.1 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…b13ebacked No | 53c | 499.99$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.99 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c09…28d0backed No | 59c | 497$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…89d8backed No | 59c | 487$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.67 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes | 41c | 479$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.39 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 43c | 477$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.11 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 30c | 460.11$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.7 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x184f…a48fbacked Yes | 42c | 457$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…7b04backed No | 59c | 443$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.63 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…84bebacked Yes | 41c | 430$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…0c87backed No | 59c | 427$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca36…bb1dbacked No | 59c | 427$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.49 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…35bebacked No | 59c | 423$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe47d…907bbacked No | 59c | 417$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb6…5ea0backed Yes | 41c | 413$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 22c | 402.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.12 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7811…6e14backed Yes | 39c | 390$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…d705backed No | 59c | 386$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…0f0fbacked Yes | 41c | 377$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes | 66c | 374.85$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.69 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 27c | 369.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.57 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe19c…0b8dbacked Yes | 67c | 359.15$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.55 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b82…1712backed No | 59c | 357$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.37 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +115.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc76a…841ebacked Yes | 40c | 352$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 71c | 334.51$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.01 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed No | 58c | 319$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.76 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4628…ee62backed No | 59c | 317$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.97 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 45cpaid | +152.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…69e5backed Yes | 41c | 317$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…e757backed Yes | 35c | 312.71$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.73 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…3e46backed Yes | 41c | 310$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 30c | 302.26$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34be…6797backed Yes | 41c | 298$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…95c6backed Yes | 42c | 295$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.82 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…bcf0backed Yes | 43c | 285$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.55 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes | 21c | 283.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 42c | 264.19$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.