TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,645
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,817

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,645 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x110a…38a8backed Yes3c999.35$26 inLost-$25.641879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51d2…44f4backed Yes26c993.97$263 inLost-$263540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f61…bb12backed Yes6c800$45 inLost-$451931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick25cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes23c666.6$155 inLost-$15513518.5%25 W · 110 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5c9…586abacked No78c599.99$468 inWon+$1321758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes4c565.11$21 inLost-$21.327817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f41…a668backed Yes4c462.95$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd572…a526backed Yes25c399.97$100 inLost-$99.991030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66f1…2dd9backed No75c333.33$250 inWon+$83.338100%8 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes14c306.41$43 inLost-$42.986549.2%32 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce7b…b13ebacked No68c300$203 inWon+$972360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes15c247.84$38 inLost-$38.317850%39 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x10b2…9ac1backed Yes17c231.21$38 inLost-$38.29520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1555…7d82backed Yes24c208.24$50 inLost-$504429.5%13 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28b6…9638backed No78c200$155 inWon+$45250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-35.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No78c190.5$148 inWon+$42.2910165.3%66 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes29c187.91$55 inLost-$5538237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes13c177.44$23 inLost-$23.0721926.5%58 W · 161 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a76…3022backed No74c172.22$127 inWon+$44.782352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes14c166.21$23 inLost-$22.7326616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5422…a780backed Yes22c154.4$35 inLost-$34.53714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-58%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes17c153.1$26 inLost-$25.8320239.1%79 W · 123 L+20.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+44.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x39b7…db6fbacked Yes34c147.57$50 inLost-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes18c142.08$26 inLost-$25.572365.2%15 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5125…601abacked Yes20c131.31$26 inLost-$25.71837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-38.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2683…b5bfbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost-$101540%6 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+99.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes20c100$20 inLost-$202850%14 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+33.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes17c84.98$14 inLost-$14.231719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3517…dab5backed Yes12c84$10 inLost-$10.086725.4%17 W · 50 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-0.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes18c82.35$15 inLost-$14.6816046.3%74 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb20…054bbacked Yes17c80.73$14 inLost-$13.624245.2%19 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed No70c79.99$56 inWon+$242839.3%11 W · 17 L-5.3wins-0.19per pick58cpaid-43.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb141…0494backed No80c75.25$60 inWon+$15.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked No76c70$54 inWon+$16.517934.6%62 W · 117 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5c6…38b6backed No70c50$35 inWon+$154753.2%25 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e83…99a1backed No77c32.5$25 inWon+$7.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13f4…52d1backed No78c25.71$20 inWon+$5.71475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63dd…b55abacked No77c21.11$16 inWon+$4.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80b8…9c0ebacked No77c20$15 inWon+$4.64146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e2…e700backed No75c20$15 inWon+$53100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcff…2a59backed No75c20$15 inWon+$53839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0f9…9126backed No80c12.5$10 inWon+$2.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+55.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.