Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75d65b2b0cf8f319b67feae661ac5baa1dba7377fc2c1c9dcecf28a562fb0259
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $163,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb911…a649backed No | 1c | 25,750$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 0c | 21,230$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…5db0backed No | 0c | 19,382$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6b…75b4backed No | 0c | 6,868$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…b5e1backed No | 1c | 5,900$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked No | 1c | 5,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed No | 0c | 5,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…1e37backed No | 21c | 4,721$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac8…1189backed No | 1c | 3,848$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…b703backed No | 1c | 2,999$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed No | 5c | 2,890$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.17 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8572…63ccbacked No | 4c | 2,692$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bc…fa0fbacked No | 3c | 2,535$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…36f4backed Yes | 80c | 2,220$1,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d27…4f3cbacked No | 1c | 1,721$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…12ecbacked No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 53c | 821.06$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.9 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…5f58backed No | 5c | 688.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9b…2d24backed No | 8c | 528.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +94%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 10c | 499.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed No | 18c | 499.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked No | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 7c | 444.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 11c | 431.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +10.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x095e…fd6bbacked No | 19c | 419.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked No | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2f…9e9abacked No | 20c | 390$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 7c | 388.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ab…c71bbacked Yes | 80c | 379.2$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.27 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…2552backed No | 18c | 345.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 70c | 337.84$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.75 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 25c | 320$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf746…f1f5backed No | 21c | 281.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 68c | 271.1$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.04 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2a…9863backed No | 20c | 232.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6241…82b2backed No | 29c | 222.82$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3daa…41c4backed No | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 14c | 186.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 10c | 178.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e05…0d64backed No | 16c | 158.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +4,066.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf784…ab48backed No | 13c | 119$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5876…188ebacked No | 28c | 114.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…3873backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b86…53d7backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aac…b7e1backed No | 26c | 76.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes | 68c | 75.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…951abacked No | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 15cpaid | +1,986.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec67…c2a6backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…169abacked No | 25c | 55.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…6718backed No | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b6…fff0backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5e…35dabacked No | 32c | 47.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2479…32f4backed No | 43c | 46.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc5…f5e1backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 68c | 38.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdb…3365backed Yes | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…b598backed Yes | 70c | 19.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.