TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x28a2…05e7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
88
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 58 out of 100; worst Middle East at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2025, EST296.9%2 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$35.41
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$39.98
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$21.47
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$29.04
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+226.4%+$42.68
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+1,888.8%+$1,100.71
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$28.84
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$29.81
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$80.32
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$48.77
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$32.66
Will France recognize Palestine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$122.24
Will the UK recognize Palestine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$122.49
Will Israel raid Gaza aid ship Handala by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.42
Will Israel raid Gaza aid ship Handala by Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.66
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.06
Will Iran declare war on Israel before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.97
Israel strike on Iran on June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Israel strike on Iran on June 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Israel strike on Iran on June 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Israel strike on Iran on June 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$261.77
Iran strike on Qatar today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.24
Israel strike on Iran on June 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$103.96
Israel strike on Iran on June 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$98.92
Israel strike on Iran on June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$179.98
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST1533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+180.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$11.65
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$109.34
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$45.38
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$62.07
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+2,531.6%+$334.93
US x China tariff agreement by November 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.43
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$103.73
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.34
Will Trump say "America / American" 35+ times during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.53
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+308.7%+$78.97
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT+52.9%+$15.86
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$223.32
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$356Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+580.9%+$2,068.99
Will Trump attend NATO Summit?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$71
All 15 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$143.88
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+403.5%+$798.88
Will Ethereum reach $4400 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.72
Will Ethereum reach $4300 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.71
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$201.02
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$140.78
Will Ethereum reach $3900 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$250.54
Will Ethereum reach $3800 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$322Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$321.61
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$140.07
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.95
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$114.66
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2025, EST1010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-85.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$138.22
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$24
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$22.56
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$180.79
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$23.9
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$53.37
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$99.84
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$161.08
Grokipedia released by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.76
Grokipedia released by October 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+48.2%+$54.35
All 10 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+33.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Lyman by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+879.3%+$1,461.83
Will Russia capture Yampil' by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$34.24
Will Russia enter Siversk by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$49.9
Will Russia capture Ivanopillya by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$41.11
Will Russia capture Rivnopillia by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$134.36
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$61.22
Trump x Putin talk before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+125.4%+$250.75
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$57.57
Trump x Zelenskyy talk before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.42
All 9 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.44
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.42
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Park Sung-jae in jail by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+233.3%+$228.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.59
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.