TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in August?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$56,017
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$62,389

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,017 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2360…1c1cbacked No7c12,703$850 inLost-$8501643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick25cpaid+68.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No0c4,112$20 inLost-$19.81,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf24…5058backed No9c3,000$270 inLost-$270520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cad…7c1fbacked No9c2,111$200 inLost-$2003148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28a2…05e7backed No8c1,694$140 inLost-$140.071118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45ef…d3f6backed No6c1,500$85 inLost-$853020%6 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-71.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65a0…ebecbacked No13c800$104 inLost-$10410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebf7…da78backed No2c666.33$13 inLost-$13.325761.4%35 W · 22 L+7.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf8bb…3395backed No9c383.33$35 inLost-$351050%5 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+112.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a26…8acbbacked No14c277.78$40 inLost-$407139.4%28 W · 43 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x96da…68b6backed No4c250$10 inLost-$101827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+25.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7479…fbecbacked No10c198.96$21 inLost-$20.665747.4%27 W · 30 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+25%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed No7c157.72$11 inLost-$11.463835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6edc…6975backed No13c113.38$15 inLost-$14.742839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a8…3c82backed No10c100.5$10 inLost-$101464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.