Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaeda6987c511c4b3c2602394239964470b1c776aa581e887f5f0a6b9de1d38d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $751,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $811,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $751,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 7c | 50,000$3,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,481.46 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 15c | 29,911$4,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,341.33 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes | 6c | 21,638$1,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.89 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e9…fc9fbacked Yes | 6c | 18,255$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.54 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes | 8c | 16,528$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.63 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…a48abacked Yes | 5c | 13,958$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.71 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 12,126$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.69 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 5c | 11,198$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.66 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…1eb7backed Yes | 0c | 10,206$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0107…7ec3backed Yes | 10c | 10,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b0…4f37backed Yes | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c1…f3eebacked Yes | 10c | 9,598$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471f…fd87backed Yes | 9c | 9,546$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…9165backed Yes | 12c | 9,488$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 9,015$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9f…de68backed Yes | 1c | 6,740$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…6a7cbacked Yes | 6c | 6,491$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.16 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Yes | 21c | 6,331$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352.81 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3da…3d6abacked Yes | 9c | 5,314$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.73 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…6f16backed Yes | 10c | 5,282$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.2 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d5…72ffbacked Yes | 2c | 5,063$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes | 7c | 5,018$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.89 | 128 | 24.2%31 W · 97 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5522…7590backed Yes | 2c | 5,018$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 13c | 5,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 4c | 4,343$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.23 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c98…33fbbacked Yes | 2c | 4,130$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes | 7c | 4,035$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.72 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…2370backed Yes | 15c | 3,855$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.35 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 5c | 3,598$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.46 | 81 | 16%13 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…8e82backed Yes | 2c | 2,800$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 49 | 2%1 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…58c2backed Yes | 7c | 2,676$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 50 | 6%3 W · 47 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05da…5691backed Yes | 10c | 2,270$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9071…af9cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,877$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e6…03e2backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e64…7400backed Yes | 10c | 1,494$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…1678backed Yes | 7c | 1,479$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x832f…a0e1backed Yes | 10c | 1,407$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.74 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…360bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,311$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.48 | 116 | 5.2%6 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2030…6bb0backed Yes | 6c | 1,235$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c19…17febacked Yes | 8c | 1,200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 1,089$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.61 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc706…1324backed Yes | 2c | 1,053$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0502…7547backed Yes | 7c | 1,027$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…eec6backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1916…b8edbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…bcc7backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…6654backed Yes | 20c | 979.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb045…d8bcbacked Yes | 6c | 799.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…9592backed Yes | 7c | 700.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd026…1245backed Yes | 10c | 699.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe638…a296backed Yes | 1c | 689.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…2983backed Yes | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…6bcfbacked Yes | 9c | 557.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -90%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…ab78backed Yes | 14c | 543.52$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.09 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe340…3ec2backed Yes | 15c | 533.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a9…c093backed Yes | 8c | 519.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d5…ec38backed Yes | 4c | 460.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes | 6c | 385.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dca…2dc8backed Yes | 12c | 331.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…93e9backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…86b5backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf48…3fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f4…1327backed Yes | 7c | 273.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa71a…59dabacked Yes | 7c | 260$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e2…23a8backed Yes | 9c | 257.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa121…6396backed Yes | 8c | 235.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505d…7d62backed Yes | 12c | 203.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72cd…021fbacked Yes | 10c | 196.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28cc…881ebacked Yes | 9c | 134$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…46d4backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…2eb6backed Yes | 9c | 112.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7976…d6b2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f7…9182backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39b8…b619backed Yes | 15c | 97.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3768…0e24backed Yes | 18c | 62.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b5…8e60backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3800 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3900 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4000 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4200 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4300 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4400 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4600 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4700 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4900 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5200 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.