TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$641,775
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$602,719

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $641,775 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb68a…c568backed Yes25c48,236$12,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,27422216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes6c45,247$2,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,735.5925824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes19c19,583$3,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,754.5587828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3da…3d6abacked Yes2c18,999$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.952516%4 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-72.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes5c17,102$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.8118425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes9c16,700$1,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,565.6812431.5%39 W · 85 L+0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc18…ec17backed No27c16,492$4,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,964.132832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes11c14,976$1,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,718.8737745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes6c14,285$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.512824.2%31 W · 97 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes8c12,805$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c12,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a6…9574backed Yes67c11,260$7,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,599.3728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick55cpaid-51.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x75e9…fc9fbacked Yes6c10,532$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6577423%17 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7133…438abacked Yes6c10,010$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.44137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-80.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes12c10,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2006417.2%11 W · 53 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+163.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes39c8,068$3,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,134.655032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c7,376$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.861,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cad…7c1fbacked No32c6,632$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,531.883148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd8e7…ef3bbacked No76c6,199$4,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,487.662085%17 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick73cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes2c5,784$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.681333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7694…2b66backed No73c5,754$4,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,579.331936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-46.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5bb…a429backed No44c5,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8004151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c4,835$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.281360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes7c3,908$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.46375.4%2 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-66.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebf7…da78backed No78c3,685$2,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.465761.4%35 W · 22 L+7.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2360…1c1cbacked No28c3,571$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,571.431643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick25cpaid+68.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc55e…73d7backed No40c2,610$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,566450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed No74c2,413$1,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.3163835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes20c2,288$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.8611554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed No79c1,967$1,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.736468.8%44 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe21b…37edbacked Yes10c1,844$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.54119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-65.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes8c1,526$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.87219.4%14 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed No61c1,500$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5901283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+30.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked No49c1,490$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.6515023.3%35 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No33c1,450$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.53831.6%12 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes13c1,260$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.188116%13 W · 68 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88db…3843backed No49c1,180$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.8666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+47.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x74cf…38a5backed No28c1,137$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.01250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+76.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes11c1,000$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.59824.5%24 W · 74 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45ef…d3f6backed Yes7c1,000$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.033020%6 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-71.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd3…359abacked Yes23c973.33$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.7616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-78.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0502…7547backed Yes4c940.54$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382030%6 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.20per pick10cpaid+73.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Yes41c906.96$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.516527.7%18 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5c9…41b5backed No43c890$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.34450%22 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0709…f2edbacked Yes62c805.72$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4abf…f495backed Yes1c770$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5370%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb196…0b58backed Yes52c750$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3901428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30c0…a976backed No78c641.03$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.03475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a9…c093backed Yes3c625$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bd1…4d9ebacked Yes4c611.16$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ef…31a0backed Yes19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001020%2 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-49.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4759…f916backed Yes3c515.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.92728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.19per pick9cpaid+128.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec35…cea9backed Yes4c508.54$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.36100%0 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13ea…4815backed Yes21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1053119.4%6 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-53.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd5a0…5818backed Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70ca…fc4bbacked Yes22c454.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-47.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a73…8ce1backed Yes4c451$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62f7…129abacked Yes49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca1d…28a6backed Yes3c399.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+53.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefa5…b417backed No37c386$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.181729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x110d…de76backed Yes4c368$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe808…d986backed Yes4c367$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes10c365.12$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6264812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf4de…34adbacked Yes4c353$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x430a…ff11backed No72c347.22$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.225955.9%33 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc61a…8e82backed Yes3c340$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2492%1 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-83.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d3…6c56backed Yes4c331$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505d…7d62backed Yes5c318.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15439.3%4 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d65…0b2dbacked Yes5c317$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8904…80a3backed Yes52c300$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+28.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No50c270$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.211658.6%68 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab46…03d1backed Yes5c264$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes7c263$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.871450%7 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x551b…e2c6backed Yes4c259$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cf7…dae9backed Yes4c256$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7143…23c4backed Yes4c253$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c5…3533backed No73c250$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.54656.5%26 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick62cpaid+11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes5c250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.58540%34 W · 51 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbe0…bf14backed No76c250$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.51770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad07…9ac4backed Yes4c238.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28a2…05e7backed No34c218$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.881118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3d7…7504backed No48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.339054.4%49 W · 41 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked No38c180$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.64273.8%31 W · 11 L+13.6wins+0.32per pick41cpaid+109.3%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0xc745…9499backed No50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No35c150$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.52657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+22.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6be…2368backed Yes11c145.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.631145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9362…0625backed Yes28c140.2$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.692548%12 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0a0…d98bbacked Yes8c133.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.151127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-47%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8485…c13ebacked No49c128$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.285545.5%25 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x044b…cf61backed Yes70c105.89$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.1230%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1706…e5ccbacked Yes30c100.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7479…fbecbacked No30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705747.4%27 W · 30 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+25%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0cdd…0926backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x715b…3ee1backed No31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0864…b3d0backed No56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-33.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked No44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5610545.7%48 W · 57 L+22.9wins+0.22per pick24cpaid+94.2%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3517953.6%96 W · 83 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c2e…75eabacked No30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707231.9%23 W · 49 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x34bb…38c5backed Yes10c97.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.041250%6 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cb9…44f5backed Yes16c83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.497121.1%15 W · 56 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.