Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95f6e0909f101c3cc4b664a6363b118ee77c302e868f58815493e05bc3cca911
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $491,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $535,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $491,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 1c | 50,000$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.66 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…d4dcbacked Yes | 7c | 40,000$2,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,719.99 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4648…fc9fbacked Yes | 8c | 36,334$2,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,894 | 70 | 18.6%13 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 12,006$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.9 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…0d22backed Yes | 0c | 10,786$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x318f…d375backed Yes | 4c | 8,946$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.03 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c98…33fbbacked Yes | 1c | 8,580$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…6a7cbacked Yes | 4c | 7,876$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.89 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes | 4c | 7,686$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.08 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes | 3c | 6,802$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.83 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…58c2backed Yes | 2c | 4,975$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 6%3 W · 47 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1916…b8edbacked Yes | 4c | 4,836$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 7c | 4,798$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.89 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e9…fc9fbacked Yes | 3c | 4,454$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.11 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ff…bbd1backed Yes | 4c | 3,173$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 3c | 3,128$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.61 | 81 | 16%13 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc012…baa0backed Yes | 1c | 2,945$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbe…1c89backed Yes | 11c | 2,708$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37f…3bbbbacked Yes | 4c | 2,424$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…0748backed Yes | 5c | 2,382$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 11c | 2,367$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…a48abacked Yes | 3c | 2,345$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0921…263ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,173$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.74 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes | 5c | 2,026$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.27 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa121…6396backed Yes | 2c | 1,816$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…97e3backed Yes | 1c | 1,571$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,484$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 2c | 1,473$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e99…18d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,353$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…8e82backed Yes | 2c | 1,320$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 49 | 2%1 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x136e…9a6cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,113$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f71…912dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,101$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f2…66fdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,079$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +85%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…bcc7backed Yes | 3c | 1,070$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes | 3c | 973.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ea…5218backed Yes | 3c | 954.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…95bdbacked Yes | 6c | 877.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…9592backed Yes | 3c | 866.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…fab4backed Yes | 5c | 727.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e50…1fbdbacked Yes | 5c | 560.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe340…3ec2backed Yes | 8c | 537.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505d…7d62backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…360bbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 5.2%6 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…13ecbacked Yes | 5c | 494$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4d…4c6dbacked Yes | 2c | 476.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…6630backed Yes | 4c | 460$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fc…8c9cbacked Yes | 7c | 459.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x837b…e8bebacked Yes | 4c | 455.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…86b5backed Yes | 5c | 437.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf48…3fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 434.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb703…8f9ebacked Yes | 4c | 417$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…0c27backed Yes | 4c | 384.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cea…4674backed Yes | 7c | 368$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0213…6e8ebacked Yes | 10c | 363.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4abf…f495backed Yes | 4c | 361.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f4…1327backed Yes | 6c | 357.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7976…d6b2backed Yes | 5c | 349.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32b…4798backed Yes | 4c | 348$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6609…73c6backed Yes | 4c | 333.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x536b…f150backed Yes | 4c | 311.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…8059backed Yes | 4c | 297.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05da…5691backed Yes | 4c | 292.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb2…7eecbacked Yes | 4c | 282.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 245.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06f7…9182backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa875…11a1backed Yes | 5c | 198$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe8…7f4bbacked Yes | 11c | 183.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf721…ebedbacked Yes | 7c | 153$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3800 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3900 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4000 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4200 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4300 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4400 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4600 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4700 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4900 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5200 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.