Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb7033eece32905a983e43606c6321c394fb00b28c11c4b70b93f30c8da22479
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $602,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $788,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $602,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc54…d4dcbacked Yes | 2c | 99,999$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.98 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 0c | 65,302$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.91 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4648…fc9fbacked Yes | 6c | 28,665$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 70 | 18.6%13 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…6a7cbacked Yes | 2c | 10,520$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.44 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9043…8b7bbacked Yes | 2c | 7,555$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 7,502$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.43 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9213…1431backed Yes | 2c | 4,734$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…8e82backed Yes | 1c | 4,184$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 49 | 2%1 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65fe…e38fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,948$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x837b…e8bebacked Yes | 3c | 3,492$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.13 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…da7ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,247$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,901$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…6167backed Yes | 2c | 1,529$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb03f…8608backed Yes | 4c | 1,511$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a9…c093backed Yes | 2c | 1,146$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa121…6396backed Yes | 1c | 1,116$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1916…b8edbacked Yes | 2c | 1,098$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…9592backed Yes | 2c | 1,076$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0921…263ebacked Yes | 3c | 999.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…3e6bbacked Yes | 3c | 951.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 2c | 798.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505d…7d62backed Yes | 3c | 763.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974b…a907backed Yes | 1c | 722.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 2c | 542.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 81 | 16%13 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Yes | 4c | 506.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe8…7f4bbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c21…a532backed Yes | 5c | 416.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d02…dd2dbacked Yes | 5c | 216.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3800 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3900 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4000 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4200 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4300 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4400 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4600 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4700 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4900 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5200 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.