Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x522bcdb642283507233874b9e9eca991d445135dcd82dba6e6cf09dcf40e5b7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $308,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $255,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $308,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 6c | 53,671$3,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,389.55 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b2…17e4backed Yes | 3c | 30,238$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.64 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 13,697$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 6c | 13,314$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.24 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf186…6b94backed Yes | 3c | 12,631$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43bd…0aa4backed Yes | 0c | 7,933$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 4c | 5,076$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.37 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes | 6c | 4,729$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…9165backed Yes | 4c | 4,640$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd74f…95cdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,467$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd3…359abacked Yes | 1c | 3,976$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8814…5cc0backed Yes | 1c | 3,913$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,233$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a19…c9e3backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e1…7a0abacked Yes | 0c | 2,478$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 2c | 2,400$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +519.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…f5d2backed Yes | 6c | 2,250$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 8cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b41…4041backed Yes | 1c | 1,487$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,335$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495e…ad10backed Yes | 1c | 1,269$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…2d70backed Yes | 2c | 1,193$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 110 | 5.5%6 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1c…55cabacked Yes | 2c | 1,176$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c0…5615backed Yes | 2c | 908.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 3c | 866.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62f7…129abacked Yes | 4c | 605.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…eb16backed Yes | 5c | 499.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 3c | 485.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 81 | 16%13 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…eef4backed Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cd…4620backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d5…3ba6backed Yes | 4c | 260$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1b…8d9abacked Yes | 7c | 144.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…44f5backed Yes | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3800 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3900 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4000 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4200 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4300 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4400 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4600 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4700 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4900 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5200 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.