Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb0846212b21609321540da8c4a84c4e33b08997a4dfda478325b87e68c5def5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $612,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $552,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $612,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 19c | 51,796$9,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,687.6 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 1c | 49,998$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd2…d91ebacked No | 80c | 40,412$32,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,256.57 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 10c | 28,591$2,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,741.88 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…9165backed Yes | 4c | 21,029$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes | 16c | 15,279$2,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,494.2 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 12,499$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 2c | 12,429$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.1 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a4…eff2backed Yes | 18c | 12,276$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250.42 | 87 | 13.8%12 W · 75 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…9574backed Yes | 28c | 12,083$3,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,375.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 9,907$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 25c | 9,790$2,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,459.13 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 0c | 8,287$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 133 | 3.8%5 W · 128 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 7,802$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.72 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…2a59backed Yes | 2c | 7,589$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf186…6b94backed Yes | 9c | 6,960$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e9…fc9fbacked Yes | 6c | 6,495$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.28 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 1c | 5,773$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…784ebacked Yes | 14c | 5,635$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.35 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 76c | 5,050$3,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.5 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…b593backed No | 73c | 4,050$2,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes | 1c | 3,990$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…6238backed Yes | 9c | 3,639$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…16dfbacked Yes | 6c | 3,618$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.81 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd3…359abacked Yes | 5c | 3,440$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 13c | 2,042$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.08 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…8e82backed Yes | 2c | 1,894$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 49 | 2%1 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…fda0backed No | 76c | 1,786$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.58 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 1c | 1,395$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 81 | 16%13 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f9…549abacked Yes | 11c | 1,237$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0502…7547backed Yes | 2c | 1,179$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,075$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13ea…4815backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b41…4041backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 7c | 839.53$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fecfbacked No | 71c | 707.74$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.24 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 77c | 700$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ea…60c2backed Yes | 18c | 700$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1e…a7afbacked Yes | 16c | 700$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f7…129abacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 15c | 619.92$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.43 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5646…3819backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed No | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked No | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa366…54efbacked Yes | 16c | 500$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96b0…6de5backed Yes | 21c | 406.43$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…60adbacked No | 73c | 347.06$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.06 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3cf…175cbacked Yes | 12c | 342.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 293.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 21c | 280$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf7…da78backed Yes | 22c | 209.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 72c | 199.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…795abacked Yes | 12c | 180.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…c13ebacked No | 66c | 179.68$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.09 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b3…310ebacked No | 73c | 164.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec0e…1e4ebacked Yes | 12c | 160$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…8acbbacked Yes | 27c | 145.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34bb…38c5backed Yes | 17c | 135.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88f5…828abacked No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b89…5651backed Yes | 11c | 112.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d5…3ba6backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8f…0644backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 95.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2a…b7aebacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fc…d0fbbacked No | 75c | 85.71$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…44f5backed Yes | 18c | 67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b84…9d3bbacked Yes | 21c | 53.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…7096backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9512…67a2backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9f…b105backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3791…158fbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3800 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3900 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4000 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4200 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4300 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4400 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4600 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4700 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4900 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5200 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.