TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x96da…68b6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
111
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 60 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+25.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.83
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+110.2%+$17.72
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.34
Will Solana dip to $100 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.57
Will XRP reach $4.00 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.95
Will Solana dip to $155 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+1,150%+$119.6
Will XRP reach $4.50 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.01
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Dogecoin reach $0.26 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$14
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Solana reach $210 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT+402%+$117.99
Ethereum all time high before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+64%+$15.22
Will Dogecoin reach $0.24 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.57
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$108.44
Will Bitcoin reach $117K in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.84
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 18 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick39cpaid+60.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+202.5%+$332.71
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$18.6
Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?backed Gaza · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT+62.6%+$15.4
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+316.7%+$143.84
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$10.92
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$122.46
Will Russia capture Siversk by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+28.5%+$12.9
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.99
Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT+178.8%+$381.66
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by August 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$95.7
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+393.3%+$312.48
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or UAE?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$63.61
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$112
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.4
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+104.7%+$111.57
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia by September 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.34
All 16 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 18, 2025, EDT128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick23cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk tweet more August 17 than day before?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.01
Will Elon Musk tweet more August 16 than day before?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.25
Will Elon tweet 470 or more times August 8–August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.29
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times August 8–August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$219.95
Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.56
Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+815.4%+$993.25
Will Elon tweet 285–299 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.91
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$66.06
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.04
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.02
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$373Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$372.88
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.05
All 12 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-77.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.3
Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$35.78
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.4
Will Ghislaine Maxwell cut a deal with the Feds by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.84
Will courts block Trump's D.C. takeover by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.06
Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$493Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$839.79
Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first?backed Zelenskyy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$72.15
Will Trump meet with Putin in Alaska on August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.51
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$257.53
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.75
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.98
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+23.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+313.7%+$288.9
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+88.3%+$40.33
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.88
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.46
Will Lee Jun-seok be arrested by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+37%+$3.78
Will valid votes be between 5.8-6 million in Bolivia election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.73
Will valid votes be more than 6.2 million in Bolivia election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$7.4
Han Duck-soo in jail by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+134.4%+$29.82
Lee Sang-min in jail by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$136.61
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
X relaunches Vine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+504%+$152.7
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23.62
OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.02
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $340b and $350b on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.65
Will GPT-5 be released on August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.96
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$114.16
Will GPT-5 be released by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$81.48
Will GPT-5 be released by August 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.84
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 8, 2025, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-60.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+55.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+367.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Golf — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 13, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC: Ewert vs. Panferovbacked Ewert · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.6
UFC: Miller vs. Drago backed Miller · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$4.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Sep 21, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Chicago Cubs win the NL Central Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$14.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Earthquake 7.0 or above by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$95.71
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.