MLB · resolved market
Will the Chicago Cubs win the NL Central Division?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c85cc795d9320fb70ae664ba3c2dacf9adf9ec2e8fc7dfc96016d10001e4901
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $442,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $439,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $442,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76d7…a31dbacked Yes | 65c | 57,634$37,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,462.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…924abacked No | 35c | 57,631$20,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,460.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…ebdcbacked No | 46c | 34,923$16,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,858.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf426…e665backed Yes | 54c | 34,923$18,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,858.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…3092backed No | 53c | 29,122$15,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,687.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f2…0932backed Yes | 47c | 29,122$13,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,687.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…06a7backed No | 45c | 21,324$9,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,728.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c03…40edbacked Yes | 55c | 21,324$11,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,728.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x826f…6e3dbacked No | 49c | 21,288$10,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,856.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…eb00backed Yes | 51c | 21,281$10,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,853.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…2e1fbacked Yes | 54c | 20,632$11,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,141.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…50d3backed No | 46c | 20,632$9,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,141.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf97…5923backed Yes | 55c | 19,414$10,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,677.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b335backed No | 45c | 19,414$8,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,677.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 36c | 3,313$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.22 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes | 55c | 1,924$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.56 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Yes | 58c | 1,516$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.09 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 70c | 1,493$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.11 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 32c | 1,035$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.52 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 38c | 862$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.83 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 32c | 694.45$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.5 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 12c | 693.87$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 50c | 502.01$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.6 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 38c | 432.93$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.79 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 64c | 412$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.24 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 56c | 354.39$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 68c | 351$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 46c | 349$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.46 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 48c | 321.01$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.7 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 37c | 303.88$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.22 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed No | 33c | 259.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.4 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 64c | 259.41$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.45 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +298.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 64c | 238$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.32 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 21c | 236$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 203.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed No | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 59c | 196.38$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.23 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 25c | 163.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 41c | 129$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.87 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 44c | 126$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 247 | 48.6%120 W · 127 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3198…af79backed Yes | 9c | 120.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2501…b790backed Yes | 65c | 117$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 47c | 105.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 65c | 103.91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d8…5744backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 30c | 82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 49c | 77.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 46c | 75.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 73c | 74.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2124…17e7backed Yes | 16c | 72.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 40c | 67.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 36c | 63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…0c63backed Yes | 80c | 62.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -7.9wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 30c | 58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked No | 46c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 49c | 50.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 163 | 52.1%85 W · 78 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7a36backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked No | 61c | 48.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 29c | 42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 40c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdce4…db07backed No | 44c | 37.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +192.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7576…82debacked No | 48c | 37.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4da…cf3bbacked No | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…541cbacked No | 44c | 34.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 56c | 34.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc829…d25abacked Yes | 59c | 33.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0d…d3f2backed No | 44c | 32.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3f…a31ebacked Yes | 59c | 32.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf28…65cfbacked Yes | 57c | 30.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a62…9d3dbacked No | 44c | 30.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95b…d4d5backed No | 55c | 30.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee97…ee69backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c0…e387backed Yes | 59c | 28.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e02…1fcdbacked Yes | 53c | 27.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf2…39f7backed Yes | 57c | 24.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a4…be51backed Yes | 57c | 20.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd720…9be9backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6e…7af2backed Yes | 59c | 19.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…a770backed Yes | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3f…fb85backed Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Chicago Cubs win the NL Central Division?this page
- Will the Cincinnati Reds win the NL Central Division?No won
- Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the NL Central Division?Yes won
- Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the NL Central Division?No won
- Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the NL Central Division?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.