MLB · resolved market
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the NL Central Division?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc31610236536bd511692be034bb9c6510f2fcb31b8b09d8ccbfa203dced99e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 64c | 4,935$3,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,791.81 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Yes | 17c | 2,996$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,496.49 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 16c | 2,062$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,724.57 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 53c | 1,712$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.85 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 43c | 1,661$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.82 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Yes | 55c | 1,372$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.87 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 50c | 1,168$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.56 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 62c | 1,110$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.99 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 65c | 989.08$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.62 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 17c | 747.32$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.29 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 24c | 711.13$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.28 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 14c | 628.72$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.53 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 608.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 75c | 607.75$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.22 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 36c | 420$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.29 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +298.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked No | 35c | 352$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.09 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -7.5wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 69c | 295.99$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.13 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 48c | 280.39$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.16 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4a…0502backed Yes | 31c | 222.22$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 78c | 186.93$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.57 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d2…fa5fbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +240.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 16c | 174.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +148.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 46c | 141.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 53c | 120.85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 32c | 119.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 52cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2501…b790backed Yes | 17c | 117$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 65c | 90$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 36c | 78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 56cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 66c | 78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 21c | 78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 77c | 75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 35c | 62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 77c | 42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked No | 45c | 40.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 247 | 48.6%120 W · 127 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7687…d750backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…c13ebacked Yes | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…d56abacked No | 76c | 14.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the NL Central Division?this page
- Will the Chicago Cubs win the NL Central Division?No won
- Will the Cincinnati Reds win the NL Central Division?No won
- Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the NL Central Division?No won
- Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the NL Central Division?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.