TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xee97…ee69

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
81
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Fed Rates at 56 out of 100; worst Middle East at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1650%8 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$75.29
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+76.3%+$39.97
Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$22.85
Another US military action against Iran before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+31.6%+$36
Will Trump cut corporate taxes in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$11.02
Will Cuomo endorse Eric Adams?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$16.5
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.91
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+400%+$480
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.36
US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT+26.5%+$8.33
Will Trump's approval rating hit 43% before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$143.38
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.52
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+137.3%+$221.38
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.69
US-Iran nuclear deal before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$9.84
All 16 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST1450%7 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+69.5%+$56.6
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+33.9%+$5.67
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$250
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$120
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$11.26
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$70.1
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+46%+$65.38
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+36.1%+$12.35
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$31
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$73.33
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$61.26
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$275.67
All 14 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-56.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+88.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 12, 2025, EST560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+121.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+166.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kenny Pickett start Week 1 for the Browns?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek V4 released before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 achieve a sucessful splashdown?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Negative GDP growth in Q3 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$266.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ferrari finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$29.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.