AI · resolved market
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0863a9a895ee478f311512ac2b19d8de65000030aff0027db9e604f937f6c8a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $863,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $929,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $863,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 294 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x716f…9798backed Yes | 23c | 70,540$16,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,015.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 14c | 17,486$2,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,413.5 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 73c | 16,319$11,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,383.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed Yes | 17c | 15,126$2,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,636.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 13,996$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.83 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 13c | 10,989$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 2c | 10,714$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.14 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…cecebacked Yes | 20c | 10,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 15c | 8,781$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1,039.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d7…6547backed Yes | 4c | 8,424$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91a4…d703backed Yes | 16c | 7,970$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e23…5411backed Yes | 13c | 7,408$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 75c | 6,585$4,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,647.87 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 73c | 6,000$4,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d6…395bbacked Yes | 22c | 5,754$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 13c | 5,037$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.07 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 11c | 4,568$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.87 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 15c | 4,500$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…0971backed Yes | 1c | 4,460$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5d…f2c1backed Yes | 12c | 4,141$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 18c | 4,006$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked Yes | 2c | 3,972$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…06d0backed Yes | 15c | 2,986$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…933dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,891$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0910…ce1cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,835$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.34 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bf…7424backed Yes | 14c | 2,759$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…2e31backed Yes | 18c | 2,745$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 6c | 2,707$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.09 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2433…dfc8backed Yes | 15c | 2,667$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 20c | 2,650$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.3 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 14c | 2,555$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.17 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 11c | 2,543$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 8c | 2,400$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.95 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 2,390$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 14c | 2,259$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb08e…861bbacked Yes | 21c | 2,129$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dad…bc7abacked Yes | 2c | 2,083$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…61bcbacked Yes | 14c | 2,037$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddab…f312backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…6318backed No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Yes | 12c | 1,894$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 1,872$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 78c | 1,817$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.6 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes | 15c | 1,755$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 18c | 1,700$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,660$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 13c | 1,600$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca3…cb95backed Yes | 4c | 1,600$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 9c | 1,564$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.2 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe448…f5cbbacked Yes | 15c | 1,540$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…c971backed Yes | 14c | 1,456$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x830e…7099backed Yes | 14c | 1,450$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc565…6662backed Yes | 14c | 1,429$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,423$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.01 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 13c | 1,415$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.72 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 14c | 1,414$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1664…2babbacked Yes | 15c | 1,400$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc45…e0eabacked Yes | 18c | 1,398$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,356$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x648c…d256backed No | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed Yes | 8c | 1,244$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 1,178$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.68 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf2…5488backed Yes | 14c | 1,165$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 14c | 1,120$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 17c | 1,101$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.13 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…7aafbacked Yes | 2c | 1,015$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a44…021cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,011$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536c…3f59backed Yes | 4c | 1,005$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 76c | 1,000$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa3…da37backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 16c | 982.14$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.2 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 14c | 951.87$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.54 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 5c | 903.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Yes | 22c | 899.23$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 14c | 882.9$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.68 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 24c | 881.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.95 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa391…aa18backed Yes | 2c | 849.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 72c | 815.42$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.94 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c18…dc3cbacked Yes | 18c | 797.86$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa946…fa19backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed Yes | 16c | 757.11$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.18 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Yes | 14c | 713.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…675ebacked Yes | 14c | 709.88$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes | 11c | 709.14$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfb…8445backed Yes | 17c | 705.88$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 13c | 699.36$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 11c | 697.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.74 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860a…7252backed Yes | 14c | 694.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac3…3189backed Yes | 16c | 686.06$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed Yes | 14c | 682.36$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3e…6757backed Yes | 10c | 678.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb2…b38bbacked Yes | 13c | 672.28$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Yes | 10c | 666$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 13c | 658.07$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.55 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 13c | 634.16$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126b…a516backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.