TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9e9f…c17c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
156
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: World Politics, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 58 out of 100; worst Movies at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST4314%6 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$58.88
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.74
Will Trump pardon 1,500 or more Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,014Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,013.53
Will Trump pardon 1,250-1,499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+216.5%+$408.83
Will Trump agree to sell F-35 to Turkey before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.7
Will Trump increase cap on H-1B visas in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.23
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$123
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.96
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$125.97
FL-1 special election: Valimont (D) vs. Patronis (R)backed Valimont · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$120.97
FL-6 special election: Weil (D) vs. Fine (R)backed Weil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$316.62
Was JFK assassination an inside job?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$106.5
Will Donald Trump dance in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$218.29
Was JFK assassinated by a foreign government? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$114.59
Will Trump invoke Alien Enemies Act for deportations to Guantanamo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Trump executive order ending Department of Education by Thursday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$150.3
Trump releases JFK files by Tuesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.85
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$670Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+95.5%+$639.82
Will Vitalik Buterin attend the March 7 Crypto Summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$125.58
Trump negative approval before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$38.47
Will Trump make English the national language?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+566.7%+$203.99
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$4,957Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST-100%-$4,956.51
Trump declassifies JFK files in first week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$70.71
Will Karoline Leavitt say "President" 75 or more times during the next White House press briefing?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$107.1
Will Donald Trump issue 31-33 executive orders in his first week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST-100%-$72.45
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 25, 2025, EDT4228.6%12 W · 30 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+74.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,551Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,550.76
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,022Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,022.4
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 10–15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$399.95
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 20% or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.47
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 15–20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$61.52
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$499Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+104.9%+$523.23
Will the next Pope be from South America?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.79
Will the next Pope be from North America?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+3,137.5%+$2,923.86
Will the next Pope be from Asia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$435Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$434.67
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.32
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.88
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.23
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$181.62
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$190.58
Will another coalition form the next German Government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.19
Will the AFD be part of the next German government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,680Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,680.06
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$3,165Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,165.33
Canada election called by midnight?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$266Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$114
Will 9 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will 5-6 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$42
Canada election called before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.93
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.52
Will the AfD win more than 26% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$110
Will the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$656Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$656.01
Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$213.06
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2025, EDT260%0 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 100m and 110m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$718Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$718.37
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 90m and 100m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$343Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$342.8
Will 'Minecraft' gross less than 90m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$320.03
Will 'Minecraft' gross more than 120m on opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$200.05
Will another movie win the most Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$19.46
Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$529Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$529.17
Will "I'm Still Here" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$225.78
Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$61.65
Will "Nickel Boys" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$435Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$434.93
Will "A Complete Unknown" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$32
Will Karla Sofía Gascón win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$32.26
Will Cynthia Erivo win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$30.22
Will Fernanda Torres win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$154.99
Will Jacques Audiard win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "Emilia Pérez"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$15.1
Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Cinematography at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$16.33
Will "The Girl with the Needle" win Best International Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$10.68
Will "Better Man" win Best Visual Effects at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$38.52
Will Felicity Jones win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$15.84
Will "A Different Man" win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$25.4
Will "Conclave" win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$84.82
Will "The Substance" win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$986Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$985.55
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$29.69
Will "September 5" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$34.24
Will "Sing Sing" win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$69.95
Will "Memoir of a Snail" win Best Animated Feature at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$63.75
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$808Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$807.7
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.29
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.82
Will Jerome Powell say "Growth" 8 or more times during the March meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$40
Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 60 or more times during the March meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+211.9%+$379.2
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+291.9%+$658.51
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$134.26
Will Powell say "deport" or "deportation" during January press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$208.64
Will Powell say "good afternoon" during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$18.55
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 27, 2025, EST50%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-59.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gonzaga win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$108.11
Gonzaga vs. Houstonbacked Gonzaga · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.59
Georgia vs. Gonzagabacked Georgia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$233.21
All 3 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+70.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 13-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$10.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$22.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
North Texas vs. Texas Statebacked North Texas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$19.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,134.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$10.08
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.