Movies · resolved market
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 100m and 110m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfed8b0fa24825662ff22e340e01dd6590279513a6536222afafbf7e7c39fa347
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $239,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $192,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $239,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 1c | 77,231$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.37 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 27,435$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.02 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07bf…f9cebacked Yes | 1c | 18,689$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 1c | 15,117$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.48 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf5…0c31backed Yes | 0c | 12,957$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa7…fcdebacked Yes | 0c | 11,580$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 0c | 9,900$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 5,499$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 5,306$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,755$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 0c | 3,750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 1c | 1,428$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 12c | 1,301$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.79 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d02…b35cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,251$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 5cpaid | +493.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 5c | 1,179$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,165$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.17 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,123$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d9…a9bdbacked Yes | 2c | 993.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 2c | 703.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…a196backed Yes | 3c | 702.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 591.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 554.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ca…2f89backed Yes | 6c | 536.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…838bbacked Yes | 20c | 535.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.09 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 25c | 500$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.3 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 8c | 273.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 14c | 227.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 20c | 226.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6535…5b98backed Yes | 6c | 220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 11c | 203$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Minecraft' gross between 100m and 110m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Minecraft' gross between 110m and 120m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Minecraft' gross between 90m and 100m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Minecraft' gross less than 90m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Minecraft' gross more than 120m on opening weekend?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.