Movies · resolved market
Will 'Minecraft' gross more than 120m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x215afec444de7a4d85c17e8912c6bdc74e0fdb7138b51b39914bf3e87a77aaf6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $343,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $271,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $343,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cf5…0c31backed No | 0c | 31,441$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 40c | 30,402$12,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,212.4 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed No | 2c | 26,589$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.63 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 1c | 24,456$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.56 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ec…f99ebacked No | 8c | 13,056$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 3c | 11,660$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.34 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…5c3abacked No | 0c | 11,046$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f52…6671backed No | 2c | 10,808$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +145%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked No | 3c | 10,453$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.08 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf39…cd66backed No | 1c | 10,124$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed No | 14c | 8,566$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.08 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed No | 7c | 5,959$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 23c | 5,875$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.79 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 1c | 5,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…c3f9backed No | 1c | 4,948$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked No | 4c | 4,697$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.05 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f7…5afcbacked No | 1c | 4,591$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 80c | 4,163$3,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.58 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9f…e145backed No | 2c | 3,932$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed No | 1c | 3,623$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba5…4f56backed No | 2c | 3,330$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +222%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…b96cbacked No | 1c | 3,175$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked No | 9c | 2,750$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.93 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 71c | 2,735$1,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,931.85 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 78c | 2,500$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.23 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 49c | 2,198$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed No | 32c | 2,042$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.24 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf54b…0ee4backed No | 8c | 2,035$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f2…bbc2backed No | 9c | 2,005$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 45c | 1,962$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.37 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed No | 33c | 1,895$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.56 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 40c | 1,712$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.6 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 14c | 1,700$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 61c | 1,487$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.53 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 64c | 1,477$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.85 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07bf…f9cebacked No | 8c | 1,303$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed No | 2c | 1,224$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e39…4e41backed No | 37c | 1,150$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.55 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed No | 79c | 965.42$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.87 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 11c | 889.47$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c26…9a9bbacked No | 2c | 826.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe22…66b3backed No | 9c | 783.34$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 38c | 718.71$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88a6…cf2fbacked Yes | 28c | 694.68$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 7c | 680$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed No | 24c | 646.17$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 35c | 625$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.45 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef05…3dffbacked Yes | 56c | 539$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.14 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9be…fe74backed No | 22c | 531.09$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.76 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f2…d296backed No | 6c | 505$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed No | 31c | 501.35$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.3 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 30c | 499.99$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.09 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed No | 10c | 498.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…8846backed No | 12c | 491.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3b…e2f5backed No | 4c | 490.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd28f…b499backed Yes | 50c | 442.93$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 54c | 441.94$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.65 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 32c | 395.73$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.95 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa7…fcdebacked No | 20c | 370.14$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 17c | 369.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.01 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked No | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 8c | 310$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd7…eb50backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x47bf…b84fbacked Yes | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +447.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked No | 40c | 251.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked No | 38c | 234.71$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.05 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6704…d171backed No | 61c | 220$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 32c | 220$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 58c | 203$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.06 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 188.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 43c | 148.86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 54c | 141$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.92 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…8e76backed No | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 37c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed No | 23c | 110.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 68c | 102.06$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe461…9a34backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a6…f8f9backed No | 22c | 85.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 74c | 80.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 74c | 79.54$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe38c…3ee7backed No | 18c | 67.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 39c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…ef0dbacked Yes | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Minecraft' gross more than 120m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Minecraft' gross between 100m and 110m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Minecraft' gross between 110m and 120m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Minecraft' gross between 90m and 100m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Minecraft' gross less than 90m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.