World Politics · resolved market
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 15–20%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8803ebb01193b86f4f86fa0128a944738662a9d862dab0c0a0d79020932a2f8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $209,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $209,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdf7…9189backed Yes | 0c | 15,984$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…d98ebacked Yes | 1c | 13,134$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d65…16d4backed Yes | 1c | 11,464$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 9c | 10,379$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.23 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x575a…17bcbacked Yes | 0c | 7,182$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 4c | 6,723$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.79 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc530…a237backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,718$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d29…19aebacked Yes | 4c | 4,480$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,947$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 8c | 3,917$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.05 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,728$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 6c | 3,569$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.01 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…56b9backed Yes | 14c | 2,751$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 2,173$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,937$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.81 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 3c | 1,400$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…d672backed Yes | 5c | 1,353$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 6c | 1,304$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.42 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3655backed Yes | 4c | 1,284$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c19…17febacked Yes | 7c | 1,166$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…acc0backed Yes | 16c | 1,090$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,030$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 10c | 831.92$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.76 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 7c | 799.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…1c08backed Yes | 9c | 754.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 10c | 705.74$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.35 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes | 10c | 662.45$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a19…0762backed Yes | 7c | 652.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef7e…27b2backed Yes | 8c | 596.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb50c…215bbacked Yes | 17c | 578.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Yes | 4c | 520.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +252.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 12c | 420$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62eb…5ac1backed Yes | 9c | 393.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8f…75e6backed Yes | 9c | 315.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked Yes | 9c | 266.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 7c | 263.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca0…45f0backed Yes | 13c | 236.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 76c | 142$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 10c | 108.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +29%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…57f5backed Yes | 12c | 97.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 15–20%?this page
- Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 0–5%?No won
- Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 10–15%?No won
- Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 15–20%?No won
- Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 20% or more?No won
- Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 5–10%?No won
- Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 0–5%?No won
- Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 10–15%?No won
- Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 20% or more?No won
- Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?Yes won
- Will another candidate win Bolivian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.