Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 10–15%?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3cc6c78b506f6757a3e10669efa277acc9800c1378abbaf956e9f0fd4052699

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 25, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $818,336
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $668,114

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $818,336 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x629b…995abacked Yes	12c	52,242$6,342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,342.23	432	43.1%186 W · 246 L	+29.2wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes	29c	44,476$13,094 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,094.06	101	27.7%28 W · 73 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadf9…cdc6backed Yes	3c	31,959$872 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$871.93	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-80.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	0c	24,099$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.09	444	0.7%3 W · 441 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-87.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes	26c	18,263$4,768 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,767.94	253	37.2%94 W · 159 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked No	74c	17,028$12,631 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,396.86	114	28.9%33 W · 81 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+70.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x54db…0174backed Yes	17c	16,271$2,789 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,788.59	197	22.8%45 W · 152 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes	37c	15,988$5,977 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,976.76	93	34.4%32 W · 61 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	15c	14,512$2,134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,133.58	688	3.6%25 W · 663 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d65…16d4backed Yes	54c	14,334$7,789 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,789.05	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda2e…6c83backed Yes	20c	11,994$2,389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,388.51	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d29…19aebacked Yes	48c	11,605$5,517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,517	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff30…4a37backed Yes	20c	10,748$2,123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,122.6	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	41cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes	9c	10,588$979 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$979.4	165	35.8%59 W · 106 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a19…0762backed Yes	1c	10,186$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.68	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	+24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06df…3b05backed Yes	6c	10,135$615 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$615.34	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	55cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc42e…56b9backed Yes	4c	9,334$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.06	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4221…7364backed Yes	1c	9,309$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.98	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+321.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes	6c	9,214$582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$581.87	57	29.8%17 W · 40 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes	47c	8,699$4,083 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,082.94	66	42.4%28 W · 38 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-11%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes	1c	6,920$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.67	96	13.5%13 W · 83 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	6,448$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.03	1,437	10.2%147 W · 1,290 L	-4.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2aab…3b61backed Yes	1c	6,010$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	29cpaid	-76.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	5,872$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.17	160	29.4%47 W · 113 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Yes	2c	5,840$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.77	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-81.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ed6…6a8dbacked Yes	19c	5,624$1,058 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,058.27	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+1.6wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+41.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7de3…1b32backed Yes	2c	5,460$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes	23c	5,290$1,203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,203.5	117	41%48 W · 69 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes	21c	5,202$1,096 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,096.04	148	34.5%51 W · 97 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8733…a6f0backed Yes	17c	5,102$867 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$867.32	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.13per pick	20cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	69c	5,100$3,528 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,572	123	45.5%56 W · 67 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c53…3c12backed Yes	6c	4,984$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes	7c	4,429$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.6	188	30.3%57 W · 131 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9db7…7e1fbacked Yes	9c	4,384$406 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405.81	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb07a…4d19backed Yes	16c	4,335$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.38per pick	28cpaid	+136.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked Yes	43c	4,234$1,821 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,821.36	74	51.4%38 W · 36 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes	7c	3,814$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.56	109	28.4%31 W · 78 L	+6.8wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	6c	3,776$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.73	99	22.2%22 W · 77 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes	39c	3,581$1,384 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,384.41	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	45cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79cf…b406backed Yes	13c	3,502$447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$446.5	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes	47c	3,267$1,548 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,548.02	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	50cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes	31c	2,910$902 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$902.05	97	50.5%49 W · 48 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes	11c	2,879$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.62	96	27.1%26 W · 70 L	-7.0wins	-0.07per pick	34cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes	23c	2,870$673 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$673.37	76	31.6%24 W · 52 L	-4.7wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-27%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d8f…75e6backed Yes	11c	2,842$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed Yes	36c	2,816$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.68	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e86…acc0backed Yes	19c	2,516$469 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$468.79	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.17per pick	23cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb31e…4deebacked Yes	20c	2,500$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.23per pick	52cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x387c…9188backed Yes	39c	2,415$941 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$940.79	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x457a…44debacked No	54c	2,243$1,209 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,034.57	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes	40c	2,000$803 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$803	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	8c	1,993$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.56	167	6.6%11 W · 156 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes	27c	1,897$512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$512.44	59	25.4%15 W · 44 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	28c	1,833$512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$512.32	73	17.8%13 W · 60 L	-7.7wins	-0.11per pick	28cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4b9e…ce77backed Yes	9c	1,831$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.19	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef8d…41a5backed Yes	65c	1,793$1,161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,161.42	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	69cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked Yes	11c	1,731$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.85	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes	38c	1,691$642 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$642.22	180	36.7%66 W · 114 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x341f…0d24backed Yes	4c	1,685$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.07	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-56.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c19…17febacked Yes	14c	1,645$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.08	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+67.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes	19c	1,546$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.73	110	17.3%19 W · 91 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5ed…6dbabacked Yes	21c	1,470$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.12	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9437…6c5dbacked Yes	38c	1,445$553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$552.94	42	47.6%20 W · 22 L	+3.8wins	+0.09per pick	39cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e6c…1c08backed Yes	21c	1,322$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.13	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b7…e9babacked Yes	67c	1,267$843 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$843	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	+8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa60e…d332backed Yes	49c	1,211$592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$592.27	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed No	50c	1,208$599 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$608.83	37	62.2%23 W · 14 L	+4.7wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes	35c	1,129$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.95	42	28.6%12 W · 30 L	+4.8wins	+0.11per pick	17cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c0a…9104backed Yes	20c	1,106$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.34	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	19c	1,067$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.09	110	39.1%43 W · 67 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes	9c	1,062$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+62.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7860…4694backed Yes	21c	1,000$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed Yes	46c	999.99$456 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$456	46	23.9%11 W · 35 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Yes	35c	992.41$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.11	43	34.9%15 W · 28 L	+4.6wins	+0.11per pick	24cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xce03…5608backed Yes	64c	933.57$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	13c	904.69$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.14	1,022	28%286 W · 736 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes	38c	835.7$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.72	51	23.5%12 W · 39 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	+147.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b62…ad6cbacked Yes	16c	830.29$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.04	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	+57.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b6…9344backed Yes	26c	816.68$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.95	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f9e…be96backed No	58c	800$466 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$334.4	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.25per pick	42cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes	8c	768.04$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.37	182	14.8%27 W · 155 L	+11.4wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+218.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a5e…23d8backed Yes	4c	702.26$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.3	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.13per pick	58cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44e2…daf5backed Yes	15c	663.34$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.49	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes	40c	624.81$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.39	84	56%47 W · 37 L	+9.4wins	+0.11per pick	45cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x71f3…bba4backed Yes	6c	611.52$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.81	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x62eb…5ac1backed Yes	11c	608.2$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.65	10	30%3 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdacf…8d11backed Yes	34c	580.65$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	+82.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07cf…37f0backed Yes	5c	560$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Yes	39c	553.82$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.86	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.14per pick	48cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes	6c	543.38$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.29	46	50%23 W · 23 L	+3.9wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+18%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb72c…653ebacked Yes	22c	535.35$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.37	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	-5.0wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes	41c	529.4$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.02	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+105.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf732…d078backed Yes	57c	506.34$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.09	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	58cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4040…8804backed Yes	3c	503.75$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.29	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	8cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked Yes	11c	500$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	74	23%17 W · 57 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	7c	500$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.6	482	24.7%119 W · 363 L	-7.6wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes	8c	485.62$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.62	476	6.5%31 W · 445 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes	12c	476$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.56	54	37%20 W · 34 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes	36c	473.99$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.79	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+3.9wins	+0.12per pick	46cpaid	+58.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e88…bd30backed Yes	11c	467.83$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.47	55	23.6%13 W · 42 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	30cpaid	+51.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 10–15%?this page
Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 0–5%?No won
Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 10–15%?No won
Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 15–20%?No won
Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 20% or more?No won
Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 5–10%?No won
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 0–5%?No won
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 15–20%?No won
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 20% or more?No won
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?Yes won
Will another candidate win Bolivian Election?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 10–15%?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event