World Politics · resolved market
Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 5–10%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7e5cc446cdfe8e8182d2d8b9016d190e1dd139ba601c536e8e3d2f7c7419ddb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Yes | 0c | 12,604$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +252.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 0c | 12,503$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a19…0762backed Yes | 17c | 7,944$1,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316.9 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,177$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 7c | 2,523$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.44 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…9800backed Yes | 13c | 2,365$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.39 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5189…7320backed Yes | 26c | 2,062$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 8c | 2,016$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.28 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c19…17febacked Yes | 6c | 1,798$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.66 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d83…4888backed Yes | 15c | 1,751$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…c415backed Yes | 14c | 1,702$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…c376backed Yes | 8c | 1,649$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Yes | 9c | 1,367$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.51 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf9…cdc6backed Yes | 4c | 1,227$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,199$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d09…e998backed Yes | 22c | 1,152$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2666…d969backed Yes | 10c | 1,033$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +452.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 2c | 922.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 11c | 868.43$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb602…32dfbacked Yes | 2c | 831.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…2dadbacked Yes | 19c | 778.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8730…2579backed Yes | 13c | 750.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…ce77backed Yes | 17c | 733.01$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.68 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 702.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.49 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 14c | 700$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 7c | 593.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7c…2b74backed Yes | 17c | 573.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x457a…f2e5backed Yes | 17c | 511.18$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 10c | 499.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 146 | 32.2%47 W · 99 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6600…e4f1backed Yes | 5c | 419.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…fa49backed Yes | 13c | 375.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01cd…c56cbacked Yes | 17c | 351.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4b…d761backed Yes | 16c | 350$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 14c | 348.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 16c | 340$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb76c…992fbacked Yes | 16c | 324.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2711…163bbacked Yes | 15c | 324.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 9c | 304.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd1…2647backed Yes | 15c | 300.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…3c12backed Yes | 14c | 285.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe56b…2a2dbacked Yes | 18c | 275.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 18c | 269.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05fc…f78ebacked Yes | 9c | 263$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 251.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…6638backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce71…83bcbacked Yes | 17c | 205$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 14c | 149.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 15c | 142.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x048e…6e41backed Yes | 7c | 140.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d80…a151backed Yes | 19c | 138.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x249c…2783backed Yes | 16c | 125.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce9…8ce7backed Yes | 12c | 115.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb8…c87cbacked Yes | 29c | 111.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd88c…991ebacked Yes | 19c | 106.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c1…a122backed Yes | 14c | 105.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8212…8ad8backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2266…21a5backed Yes | 16c | 98.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 13c | 94.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07c…bbb0backed Yes | 17c | 89.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b6…9344backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 79c | 44.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 5–10%?this page
- Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 0–5%?No won
- Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 10–15%?No won
- Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 15–20%?No won
- Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 20% or more?No won
- Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 0–5%?No won
- Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 10–15%?No won
- Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 15–20%?No won
- Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 20% or more?No won
- Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?Yes won
- Will another candidate win Bolivian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.