World Politics · resolved market
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 20% or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90eab03b5df47b48c257f046bb1aaa58f18a46d52d7d57b81710007f43ebe8ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $183,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cae…f779backed Yes | 0c | 14,024$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 4c | 10,000$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa3…16e5backed Yes | 0c | 6,599$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,490$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 16c | 5,361$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.51 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…56b9backed Yes | 7c | 4,684$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.07 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x575a…17bcbacked Yes | 0c | 4,482$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 12c | 4,372$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.77 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 4,348$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.12 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,329$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.95 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…d672backed Yes | 2c | 3,856$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…3c32backed Yes | 0c | 3,679$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 6c | 3,608$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.49 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,207$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.36 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 7c | 1,820$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.28 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,792$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes | 17c | 1,676$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.94 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb50c…215bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,499$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…acc0backed Yes | 10c | 1,275$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,238$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 3c | 1,049$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 1,044$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd838…a15abacked Yes | 6c | 803.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 5c | 755.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 18c | 667.75$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.55 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39f…cd6ebacked Yes | 4c | 478.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62eb…5ac1backed Yes | 7c | 454.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 4c | 431.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 3c | 412.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…1c08backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 4c | 290.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b4…7e30backed Yes | 18c | 194.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 78c | 187$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c19…17febacked Yes | 9c | 122.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4879…71d9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 16c | 95.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 20% or more?this page
- Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 0–5%?No won
- Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 10–15%?No won
- Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 15–20%?No won
- Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 20% or more?No won
- Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 5–10%?No won
- Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 0–5%?No won
- Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 10–15%?No won
- Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 15–20%?No won
- Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?Yes won
- Will another candidate win Bolivian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.