World Politics · resolved market
Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 15–20%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12335d506ec9b1cfaba764484caea32584746a7dda8f9f2d63b661a2d70f4c45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa56…f232backed Yes | 7c | 20,002$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Yes | 1c | 9,634$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.78 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +252.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 3c | 4,612$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.74 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 2,162$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 5c | 1,764$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.63 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2666…d969backed Yes | 4c | 1,750$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +452.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadf9…cdc6backed Yes | 3c | 1,731$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,522$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,170$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 921.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 839.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…fa49backed Yes | 4c | 755.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 4c | 702.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c19…17febacked Yes | 4c | 441.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 4c | 433.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 374.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…e17ebacked Yes | 10c | 160.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 15–20%?this page
- Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 0–5%?No won
- Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 10–15%?No won
- Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 20% or more?No won
- Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 5–10%?No won
- Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 0–5%?No won
- Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 10–15%?No won
- Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 15–20%?No won
- Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 20% or more?No won
- Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?Yes won
- Will another candidate win Bolivian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.