World Politics · resolved market
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c3b65c7bb09f687af5c85265f49a6aa6fcf8cea3c0406f963eb82a6f58dc41e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $859,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,073,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $859,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 359 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4976…d25cbacked Yes | 62c | 39,657$24,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,219.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 75c | 37,370$27,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,443.27 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 12c | 17,858$2,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,134.71 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 76c | 16,951$12,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,038.2 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed Yes | 65c | 12,654$8,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,478.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 34c | 12,601$4,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,322.76 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 31c | 12,360$3,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,787.5 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 38c | 12,267$4,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,688.48 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d65…16d4backed Yes | 77c | 10,607$8,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,440.14 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…9188backed Yes | 72c | 10,074$7,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,855.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…6638backed Yes | 61c | 9,469$5,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,652.17 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 7,810$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 78c | 7,694$6,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,676.14 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f2c0backed Yes | 44c | 6,321$2,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,552.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 74c | 6,249$4,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.62 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 69c | 5,719$3,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769.16 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 28c | 5,693$1,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566.45 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d29…19aebacked Yes | 57c | 5,667$3,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,461.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…4a37backed Yes | 69c | 5,661$3,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,751.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…8015backed Yes | 76c | 5,015$3,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.75 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40d…c72dbacked No | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 73c | 4,734$3,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.96 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed Yes | 66c | 4,543$3,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed No | 34c | 4,480$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.66 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…4deebacked Yes | 68c | 4,305$2,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…3c12backed Yes | 54c | 4,115$2,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880.61 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Yes | 78c | 4,000$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 55c | 4,000$2,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,786.47 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 74c | 3,684$2,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.13 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 32c | 3,331$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.48 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 15c | 3,161$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.98 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…77c4backed Yes | 61c | 3,081$1,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 42c | 3,056$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.12 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb45e…605fbacked Yes | 68c | 3,009$2,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.58 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 31c | 2,986$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.93 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a19…0762backed No | 4c | 2,878$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.66 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda2e…6c83backed No | 11c | 2,819$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 36c | 2,811$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.96 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…7e1fbacked No | 18c | 2,712$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.75 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed Yes | 72c | 2,696$1,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d5…709bbacked Yes | 71c | 2,653$1,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…4da1backed Yes | 51c | 2,648$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.29 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…1c08backed Yes | 74c | 2,361$1,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.53 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 2,359$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.86 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 41c | 2,330$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.48 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…3b61backed Yes | 71c | 2,150$1,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…4694backed Yes | 75c | 2,121$1,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 48c | 2,022$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.84 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed No | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -39%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…8718backed Yes | 79c | 1,993$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 64c | 1,897$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.07 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 37c | 1,817$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,802$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,564.85 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 22c | 1,749$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,356.3 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 71c | 1,554$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.36 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cc…f04fbacked Yes | 62c | 1,504$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b62…ad6cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,503$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b7…e9babacked Yes | 46c | 1,402$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01cd…c56cbacked Yes | 47c | 1,398$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.28 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked No | 5c | 1,386$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 61c | 1,377$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.06 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed6…6a8dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,296$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.73 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 11c | 1,272$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 41c | 1,200$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.77 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ed…6dbabacked Yes | 80c | 1,097$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 21c | 1,075$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.65 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef8d…41a5backed Yes | 71c | 1,044$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c19…17febacked Yes | 19c | 1,022$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.22 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…1787backed Yes | 79c | 1,014$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07a…4d19backed Yes | 20c | 1,008$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 40c | 1,000$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…6c5dbacked Yes | 77c | 983.34$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.98 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 11c | 982.18$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.14 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed Yes | 50c | 964.84$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…9104backed Yes | 68c | 916.87$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf9…cdc6backed Yes | 64c | 887.5$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.61 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 77c | 875$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.34 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 13c | 842.84$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.39 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked Yes | 64c | 829.25$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.36 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 18c | 824.71$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.9 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…acc0backed Yes | 21c | 823.69$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Yes | 62c | 810.11$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b6…9344backed Yes | 49c | 806.62$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.04 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x487a…56d4backed Yes | 75c | 803.91$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f1…8dd4backed Yes | 75c | 800$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed No | 43c | 779.96$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 18c | 776$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.68 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +15.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdc43…f930backed Yes | 26c | 775$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +179.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7da…c95bbacked Yes | 66c | 772.08$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca0…45f0backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.23 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 38c | 716$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.79 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab7e…2a96backed Yes | 51c | 714.27$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 61c | 709.03$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.63 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 2c | 700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x535d…3822backed No | 4c | 629.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 50c | 621.3$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.65 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 11c | 570.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.34 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 41c | 558.58$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.22 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58c2…86c8backed Yes | 63c | 556.4$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes | 51c | 524.77$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.33 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?this page
- Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 0–5%?No won
- Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 10–15%?No won
- Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 15–20%?No won
- Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 20% or more?No won
- Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 5–10%?No won
- Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 0–5%?No won
- Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 10–15%?No won
- Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 15–20%?No won
- Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 20% or more?No won
- Will another candidate win Bolivian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.