TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb72c…653e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
171
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: NBA, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 54 out of 100; worst World Politics at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST3218.8%6 W · 26 L-5.0wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-56.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
World Politics — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Frans Timmermans become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$44
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$26.32
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+474.7%+$74.34
Will UP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will PVV win 33 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+51.5%+$17
Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$16
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+25%+$5
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$687Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$687.05
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by October 31backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Issa Tchiroma Bakary win the Cameroon Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Catherine Connolly win by 20% or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+102.2%+$65.72
Will Catherine Connolly win by 15–20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.07
Will Catherine Connolly win by 10–15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.87
Will turnout be between 36% and 40% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$530Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+56.5%+$299.36
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 0–5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$87.93
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 10–15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$116.37
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 15–20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 5–10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 0–5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$75
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST2634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-36.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$93
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Trump send the national guard to San Francisco by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+57.4%+$34.5
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+63.5%+$130.49
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+69.2%+$20.76
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$28.58
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+37%+$27
Will the Government shutdown end by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Will Trump visit the Western Wall by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$80.96
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$305.57
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$58
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$44
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$10.22
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$249Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+186.1%+$463.05
Will Trump visit Israel by October 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$753Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$753.32
Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Will Trump meet with Chuck Schumer by October 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$19
US government shutdown by October 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$88
U.S. Government funding lapse on October 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$33
Will Eric Adams drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+59.3%+$47.15
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-37.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$140
Israel strikes Iran before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$52
Israel parliament dissolved in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$57
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$152.86
Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$47
Will Israel strike Yemen 0 times by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.33
US strikes Iran by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$23
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$641Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+86.4%+$553.24
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+267.5%+$211.35
Israel strikes Gaza by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$856Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$855.65
Will Trump say "October 7th" 4+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+40%+$34.01
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Autopen" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump say "Hottest" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+98.3%+$99.24
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$137.75
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$107.25
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.54
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+244.8%+$71
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on September 30 ET?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$26
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 28-30 ET?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+30%+$7.51
All 22 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1816.7%3 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-71.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
AI — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Apple release HomePod mini successor by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$45
Grok 5 released by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20.9
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$26
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$14.95
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$414Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+72.6%+$300.84
Will Microsoft be the second most valuable company on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.49
Will Apple be the second most valuable company on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+77.5%+$17.49
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$10.29
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.45
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$366Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$366.34
OpenAI browser in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.4
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 18 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST1520%3 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-12.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Music — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$87.75
Will Taylor Swift hold exactly 5 spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$40.5
Will Taylor Swift hold 6 or more spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Will Taylor Swift hold exactly 4 spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.73
Taylor Swift on top two spots of Billboard Hot 100 for Nov 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.31
Taylor Swift holds top ten spots on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of October 18th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$74
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3250000 and 3500000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.89
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3500000 and 3750000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$114.98
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3000000 and 3250000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.16
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 2750000 and 3000000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.32
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 2500000 and 2750000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.56
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be 4000000 or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT+683.5%+$423.79
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3750000 and 4000000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$32
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT+244.8%+$142
Will Diddy be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$85
All 15 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Oct 10, 2025, EDT1080%8 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Timberwolves vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$6.83
Trail Blazers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$5
Jazz vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$7.89
Spurs vs. Heatbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$8.33
Bulls vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Nuggets vs. Raptorsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT+65.1%+$19.53
Hawks vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$21.54
Bucks vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$31
Lakers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$9.85
Thunder vs. Hornetsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$8.99
All 10 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$77.51
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.8
Trump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.16
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+47.1%+$23.53
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.75
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$13.83
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.1
Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$5.6
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$36
All 10 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in October 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.01
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in October 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.21
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in October 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.42
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.8
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.25
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$42
Will Elon tweet between 900 and 949 times September 1–30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+334.8%+$77
All 9 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 28, 2025, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-62.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-68.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-53.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+71.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+109.4%+$20.9
Will the US add between 0 and 25k jobs in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+33.4%+$34.77
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+70.2%+$51.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold close above $5000 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.7
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.