Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x592faf6014f40e75e58c163d9b98b9467df91330012e8772a476bdde1112ea59

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 3, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $357,180
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $228,749

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $357,180 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	6c	38,152$2,284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,284.07	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2be3…688fbacked Yes	31c	23,083$7,153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,153.09	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	10c	22,197$2,123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,123.16	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c88…6871backed Yes	2c	11,112$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.68	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	25c	8,029$2,014 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,013.56	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	21c	4,651$977 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$977.34	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2482…9475backed Yes	58c	3,819$2,202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,202.19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	21c	3,640$765 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$765.21	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	29c	3,502$1,003 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,003.14	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5822…0d28backed Yes	39c	3,372$1,317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,316.71	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e59…a17cbacked Yes	39c	3,246$1,272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,271.92	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x438e…e08ebacked No	79c	2,751$2,167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$584.66	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+27%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No	57c	2,742$1,549 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,192.59	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	2,369$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.35	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9241…f41cbacked Yes	46c	2,171$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	62	48.4%30 W · 32 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9378…d2ddbacked No	76c	2,167$1,642 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$524.37	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	67c	2,163$1,440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$723.16	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7629…6141backed No	75c	2,064$1,547 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$517.4	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	61c	2,050$1,248 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$801.8	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked No	71c	1,802$1,283 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$519.04	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0156…11dfbacked Yes	14c	1,786$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	17c	1,654$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.7	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b84…b7d0backed Yes	8c	1,619$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.74	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x28d5…8433backed Yes	45c	1,550$701 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700.63	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	24c	1,492$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.51	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2840…b631backed Yes	39c	1,450$569 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$568.54	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-37%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26ff…8ed7backed Yes	35c	1,419$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-4.2wins	-0.38per pick	65cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes	20c	1,406$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.76	130	20%26 W · 104 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	24c	1,329$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.39	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	13c	1,309$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.58	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c5…0166backed Yes	37c	1,305$477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$476.61	49	12.2%6 W · 43 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-71%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	16c	1,281$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.07	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	26c	1,216$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.77	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	16c	1,176$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5242…5a2cbacked Yes	2c	1,148$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.69	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	25c	1,140$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.76	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91ac…215dbacked Yes	5c	1,131$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.76	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd712…228dbacked Yes	2c	1,107$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	41	9.8%4 W · 37 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc17a…1db3backed Yes	46c	1,093$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95b2…49aabacked No	74c	1,082$804 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$277.63	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed No	70c	1,077$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$326.84	128	10.9%14 W · 114 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	36c	1,000$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.9	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0976…704cbacked Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc5d…3deabacked Yes	35c	979.45$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b5…aa4dbacked Yes	51c	955$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490.47	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.18per pick	30cpaid	-79.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	3c	860$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.42	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	18c	857.4$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.6	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes	51c	830.15$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	73	11%8 W · 65 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes	15c	741.8$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.69	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc81…0ababacked Yes	42c	710.08$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	10c	695.92$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.25	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked Yes	29c	679.98$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3493…40afbacked No	64c	671.33$431 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.01	62	41.9%26 W · 36 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed No	80c	625.76$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.1	37	32.4%12 W · 25 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+83.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9afb…7f99backed Yes	11c	624.51$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+2.4wins	+0.15per pick	17cpaid	+217.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	3c	570.01$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.81	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	36c	570$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.16	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	4c	525.45$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.94	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12c6…8908backed Yes	24c	523.47$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.88	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes	58c	517.5$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	84	13.1%11 W · 73 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x304d…07f1backed No	67c	512.48$341 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$171.13	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbcb4…b811backed Yes	11c	500$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fbe…d37abacked Yes	44c	500$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd19f…9826backed No	56c	500$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d67…81f2backed Yes	4c	499.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	4cpaid	+475.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b3c…2abebacked No	71c	499.78$355 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.84	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-73.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00de…3e7dbacked Yes	41c	482.72$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No	69c	448.52$311 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.2	149	23.5%35 W · 114 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	8c	443.97$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.99	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes	15c	419.13$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.02	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes	30c	398$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.98	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1032…77f1backed Yes	20c	370$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.66	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e1…8f7ebacked No	73c	361.41$262 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.11	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.18per pick	69cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes	43c	350.16$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	61	19.7%12 W · 49 L	-6.8wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfed7…5490backed Yes	28c	339.61$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.75	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	9c	330.06$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf89…700dbacked Yes	5c	309.15$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.86	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb72c…653ebacked Yes	21c	304.84$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	23cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	9c	303.5$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.18	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes	36c	303.25$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	60	38.3%23 W · 37 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed Yes	11c	300$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.3	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes	14c	296.26$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.66	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	34c	281.74$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.94	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked No	75c	279.22$211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.71	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	14c	275.4$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.75	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf2a…5d4abacked Yes	43c	274.83$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.17	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae50…1c9dbacked Yes	11c	271.05$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.9	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes	16c	264.16$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.02	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.11per pick	20cpaid	-78.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe30e…8edfbacked Yes	23c	259.81$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No	64c	253.71$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.1	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed No	53c	251.01$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.97	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84b8…1193backed Yes	40c	250.24$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.9wins	+0.27per pick	30cpaid	+113%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c37…92a4backed Yes	25c	250$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.5	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe11c…49efbacked Yes	29c	248.35$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x203b…15adbacked Yes	15c	246.42$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	7c	233.54$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1c0…8086backed Yes	44c	230$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked No	75c	225.56$169 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.52	154	35.1%54 W · 100 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x215d…ba6dbacked Yes	44c	225.53$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fa5…4f1abacked No	66c	220.11$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.25	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+1.6wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event