Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8ab31eb1a2e14f4c79f7f8ebc2ef74f447496b345f29ec83d7dbc22d414e90d

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 1, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $134,617
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $44,599

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,617 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	13,600$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.2	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	0c	10,302$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	9,918$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	7c	9,112$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$625.44	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	3c	4,822$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.31	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	1c	3,848$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.37	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,326$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.33	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	10c	3,000$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.96	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	10c	2,700$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.47	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d67…81f2backed Yes	1c	2,500$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.47	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	4cpaid	+475.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	2,488$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	3c	2,110$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.97	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	3c	1,562$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.86	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes	4c	1,239$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.91	265	16.6%44 W · 221 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	9c	1,165$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.19	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	4c	900.15$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.42	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	8c	799.1$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	13c	724$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.57	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	10c	616.56$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.58	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	10c	557.11$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	19c	542.02$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.99	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	3c	500.81$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.61	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05dd…4d45backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb169…7aa7backed Yes	11c	466.36$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	7c	356.76$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	4c	340$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.27	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	6c	337.7$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	6c	324.64$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.56	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	11c	323$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.98	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5637…7599backed Yes	19c	320.39$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	11c	307.03$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.92	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2840…b631backed Yes	15c	273.6$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-37%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	19c	269$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.68	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	17c	250$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.65	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59e1…4252backed Yes	11c	181.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	16c	167.3$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe530…a2cabacked Yes	18c	165.07$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	31cpaid	-80.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8de9…3171backed Yes	9c	150$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.65	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa52a…5b16backed Yes	16c	125.88$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b8…2449backed Yes	20c	101.01$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.14per pick	29cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x406f…7279backed Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	28cpaid	-77.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac38…f21ebacked Yes	24c	83.21$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	-4.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7381…b54bbacked Yes	18c	70$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.53	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	30cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa220…b796backed Yes	18c	70$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-70.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe490…8816backed Yes	18c	60$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.74	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd3…934fbacked Yes	18c	60$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.74	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event