Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fbea42d0b9ad4b3a39fb78a2c4a4c4e922eb73ddf9cc6b9c75d0db27fa90eea

Rebuilt 15 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 3, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $416,319
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $148,340

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $416,319 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	147,917$1,195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,195.5	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2be3…688fbacked Yes	4c	11,558$482 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$482.37	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	9,409$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.04	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c5…0166backed Yes	6c	9,332$517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$516.67	49	12.2%6 W · 43 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-71%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	6c	7,313$421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$421	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	4c	6,555$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.64	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	13c	6,000$780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$779.6	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	11c	5,609$608 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$608.42	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	4,619$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.79	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	4,538$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.55	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes	1c	4,021$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.38	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	3c	3,417$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5822…0d28backed Yes	1c	3,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	15c	2,999$437 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436.77	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	4c	2,958$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.19	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	18c	2,923$514 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$513.54	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	8c	2,861$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.35	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,490$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.44	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	2,250$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.75	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5088…8844backed Yes	3c	2,190$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	65	24.6%16 W · 49 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	7c	2,002$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.15	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b84…b7d0backed Yes	3c	1,987$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.52	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	7c	1,918$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.51	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd712…228dbacked Yes	1c	1,615$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.55	41	9.8%4 W · 37 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes	20c	1,487$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	73	11%8 W · 65 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes	1c	1,460$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.69	265	16.6%44 W · 221 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	6c	1,421$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.07	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	11c	1,408$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.96	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d67…81f2backed Yes	1c	1,362$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	4cpaid	+475.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	4c	1,301$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.08	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf414…917fbacked Yes	3c	1,226$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-69.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	1,079$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.32	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	13c	1,073$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.11	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	16c	1,054$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.89	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	+236.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	3c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	1c	1,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	13c	969.99$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.4	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	947.4$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.94	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	8c	879.11$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.79	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	4c	875.7$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a2…1d4cbacked Yes	2c	815.07$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	79c	705.92$555 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.65	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6024…9101backed Yes	4c	599.8$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.18per pick	2cpaid	+450.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc5d…3deabacked Yes	17c	591.5$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea07…d8b7backed Yes	8c	500$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9afb…7f99backed Yes	5c	488.32$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.12	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+2.4wins	+0.15per pick	17cpaid	+217.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ecb…e7d8backed Yes	4c	474.61$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-26%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfed7…5490backed Yes	14c	454.93$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.56	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecef…b593backed Yes	16c	450$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.71	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	5c	344.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.81	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked No	78c	315.69$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.71	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes	20c	295.81$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	431	26.2%113 W · 318 L	+2.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1512…68f3backed Yes	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+2.4wins	+0.18per pick	28cpaid	+84.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x392a…6bbabacked Yes	4c	225.75$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	93	24.7%23 W · 70 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b9e…4580backed Yes	18c	225$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	56	25%14 W · 42 L	-4.9wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3493…40afbacked Yes	16c	216.59$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	62	41.9%26 W · 36 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	10c	214.11$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.97	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	6c	210$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.34	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	5c	193.49$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes	7c	164.68$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	85	18.8%16 W · 69 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes	16c	153$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.12	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5067…6d69backed Yes	12c	150$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.45	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd78c…ca14backed Yes	14c	116.77$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	50	42%21 W · 29 L	+6.2wins	+0.12per pick	30cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf89d…63a2backed Yes	20c	101.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35d1…4defbacked Yes	11c	100.23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.13	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.7	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cff…83c4backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a0f…37babacked Yes	13c	82.56$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	65	35.4%23 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaaa…e7ddbacked Yes	26c	76.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event