TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xea07…d8b7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
82
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Europa Conference League, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Europa Conference League at 54 out of 100; worst South American Leagues at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST3627.8%10 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$750Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+25.5%+$191.01
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25%+$8.5
VOOI FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+185.7%+$234.33
Harmonix FDV above $25M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$271.95
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$33.13
Over $30M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Over $70M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+203%+$184.25
Over $50M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$97.86
Over $100M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+143.9%+$106.2
Will Almanak FDV above $50M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$113.99
Will Almanak FDV above $80M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$140
Will Almanak FDV above $140M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$67.63
Will Almanak FDV above $120M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Almanak FDV above $160M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$45
HumidiFi FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$198
HumidiFi FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$42.87
HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$175.78
HumidiFi FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Stable FDV above $6B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$27.2
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$265Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+484.4%+$1,284.75
Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$57.8
Over 30,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+90.9%+$201.04
Over 35,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+44.2%+$64.4
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$10.17
Over $2M committed to the Makina public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$26.74
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Oct 3, 2025, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+37.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2025, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Oct 3, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+40.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Oct 6, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Oct 3, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Sep 29, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lazio win on 2025-09-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$34.05
Will Genoa win on 2025-09-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Sep 27, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-09-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-09-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$24.44
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$16
US government shutdown by October 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Le Havre AC win on 2025-10-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$17.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Odds of US x Venezuela military engagement in 2025 on Monday over 50%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$25.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 11, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$55.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$12.52
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.