Token Launches · resolved market
Stable FDV above $6B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3e7973f547be5da3ab0540535a1c3fe7180342bb8cec18346192ff1976a555b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $232,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $245,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $232,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7ef…7ca7backed Yes | 18c | 22,155$3,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,987.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…f8c4backed Yes | 34c | 9,224$3,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,154 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7f…0380backed Yes | 1c | 5,734$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 1c | 5,167$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.09 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeabd…3a01backed Yes | 17c | 3,536$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes | 16c | 3,001$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.11 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +11.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x079b…2fe2backed Yes | 1c | 2,544$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45dc…bbf2backed Yes | 6c | 2,336$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.75 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 5c | 2,252$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.63 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebc9…70c1backed Yes | 18c | 2,218$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.74 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…5796backed Yes | 3c | 1,917$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,688$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | -20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,624$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 44c | 1,598$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.73 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…ec26backed Yes | 3c | 1,534$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 19c | 1,500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…e1c2backed Yes | 3c | 1,415$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,327$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8c…2a49backed Yes | 8c | 1,280$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db3…feadbacked Yes | 15c | 1,154$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39e1…36c6backed Yes | 15c | 1,142$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x637b…8be4backed Yes | 3c | 1,139$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…9f84backed Yes | 16c | 1,119$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…bb81backed Yes | 6c | 1,104$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…271bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,068$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa56d…82e7backed Yes | 6c | 1,060$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2d…331fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,046$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc08b…e35bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,036$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x922e…2c68backed Yes | 15c | 1,025$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb28…1c88backed Yes | 15c | 1,004$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.47 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…76e4backed Yes | 16c | 985.4$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dba…4247backed Yes | 15c | 971.6$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5570…00d2backed Yes | 16c | 962.7$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…0adfbacked Yes | 16c | 918.5$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed Yes | 3c | 905.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1305…e359backed Yes | 15c | 904.2$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1b…8b13backed Yes | 17c | 894.32$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.9 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fca…7033backed Yes | 2c | 805.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea07…d8b7backed Yes | 3c | 800$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00da…2fe4backed No | 30c | 699.99$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 4c | 670.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cc…3ee6backed Yes | 2c | 632.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e2…06fbbacked Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…c559backed Yes | 17c | 575.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…5243backed Yes | 17c | 508.15$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 3c | 508$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a80…d7fbbacked Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52cd…e79ebacked Yes | 5c | 499.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 6c | 470.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ff…997fbacked Yes | 14c | 428.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bed…c478backed Yes | 17c | 400.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…1528backed Yes | 10c | 381.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe55f…2e53backed Yes | 22c | 258.8$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8eb…086cbacked Yes | 22c | 246.1$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…a34fbacked Yes | 5c | 225$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3de5…2213backed No | 78c | 225$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…7829backed No | 78c | 216$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de8…e38ebacked No | 78c | 215$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…d248backed No | 78c | 214$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8733…8d66backed Yes | 10c | 203.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadc…26d6backed Yes | 6c | 196.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b0…3ad5backed Yes | 22c | 183.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ff…f39fbacked Yes | 22c | 181.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d5…698dbacked Yes | 9c | 145.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d2…f38bbacked No | 65c | 142.06$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x716f…8284backed Yes | 16c | 133$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0641…ddfebacked Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6e…855ebacked Yes | 16c | 127.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441b…e43bbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +111%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed No | 65c | 94.65$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +11.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +54%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a44…1a6dbacked Yes | 11c | 92.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…d9b8backed No | 51c | 90$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1b…682fbacked Yes | 15c | 87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 16c | 82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 156 | 37.2%58 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf774…ff09backed Yes | 15c | 81.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb71d…db4abacked Yes | 15c | 75.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe69…324bbacked Yes | 15c | 72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef31…1968backed Yes | 15c | 70.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b4…6e15backed Yes | 15c | 68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3596…25f4backed Yes | 18c | 61.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x259c…fa90backed Yes | 23c | 58.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa359…a882backed Yes | 78c | 50.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 50.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 79c | 17.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stable FDV above $6B one day after launch?this page
- Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Stable FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.