Token Launches · resolved market
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd393f0a6f8f3ab5bba841985fbe49acde453c9504600baa2bd3fb61e35789b0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,108,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,028,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,108,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,030 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed Yes | 42c | 69,194$28,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,927.46 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bf…9401backed No | 70c | 44,239$30,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,348.45 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66c…f291backed Yes | 67c | 36,102$24,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,356.96 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…450bbacked No | 21c | 28,491$6,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,415.79 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 57c | 27,620$15,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,925.67 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4cd5backed No | 17c | 27,360$4,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,750.27 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…34d9backed Yes | 30c | 22,038$6,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,611.38 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed No | 34c | 19,398$6,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,889.58 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed No | 21c | 17,895$3,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,053.54 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c2…29ebbacked No | 17c | 17,166$2,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,240.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 19cpaid | +132.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…9318backed No | 14c | 16,910$2,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,542.29 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 24c | 15,470$3,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,828.7 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…49acbacked No | 44c | 13,518$5,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,572.61 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed No | 21c | 13,156$2,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,339.35 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 22c | 13,110$2,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,268.83 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda1e…f3cdbacked No | 73c | 13,048$9,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,514.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked No | 35c | 12,687$4,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,199.2 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…48a6backed Yes | 10c | 12,213$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ea…3ea8backed No | 37c | 11,947$4,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,501.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…82afbacked No | 10c | 11,330$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,213.73 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed12…c018backed Yes | 4c | 11,292$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 70c | 11,276$7,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,419.73 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b7…12b9backed No | 28c | 10,646$3,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,638.84 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40d…e3acbacked No | 19c | 10,585$2,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,553.65 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +184.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6903…b6f9backed Yes | 19c | 10,322$1,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,996.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa172…b716backed Yes | 80c | 10,245$8,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,192.33 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked No | 79c | 10,030$7,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,057.88 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d49…7450backed Yes | 30c | 10,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe551…0a67backed No | 15c | 10,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,499.98 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +7.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x0590…368dbacked Yes | 2c | 9,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9564…3a32backed No | 34c | 9,379$3,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,198.04 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 44c | 9,291$4,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,218.92 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…41c2backed No | 46c | 9,252$4,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,028.36 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e8bbbacked No | 39c | 8,744$3,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,344.26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…cb8bbacked Yes | 80c | 8,674$6,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,903.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0c…6b78backed No | 13c | 8,365$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,273.52 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…9017backed Yes | 79c | 8,195$6,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,457.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c0…186dbacked No | 78c | 8,000$6,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +300.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 24c | 7,838$1,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,892.52 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 24c | 7,721$1,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,904.24 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…6300backed No | 78c | 7,682$5,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 18c | 7,222$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,955.61 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f9…c5e8backed No | 22c | 6,911$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,400.6 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +17.9wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…36fdbacked No | 20c | 6,900$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,492.97 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb14…fd26backed No | 66c | 6,698$4,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,279.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8904…80a3backed No | 30c | 6,654$1,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,657.92 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…bb25backed Yes | 26c | 6,628$1,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,754.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f61…e259backed No | 32c | 6,497$2,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,401.79 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…e9e8backed Yes | 61c | 6,455$3,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,942.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa268…9211backed Yes | 79c | 6,200$4,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,905.93 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b02…caa6backed No | 27c | 6,033$1,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,376.26 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x943a…82d4backed No | 25c | 5,973$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,493.52 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…1e72backed Yes | 80c | 5,900$4,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,718.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked Yes | 78c | 5,760$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeefa…c780backed No | 26c | 5,733$1,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,228.74 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…4f1bbacked Yes | 30c | 5,685$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,711.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f11…af68backed Yes | 46c | 5,655$2,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,574.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 25c | 5,521$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.34 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc373…c939backed Yes | 11c | 5,516$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85be…5ec1backed Yes | 79c | 5,471$4,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,340.05 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 19c | 5,439$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,427.75 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b6…86abbacked No | 11c | 5,418$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,806.78 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…3dd4backed No | 19c | 5,313$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,312.58 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…6274backed Yes | 75c | 5,304$3,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,980 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 61c | 5,242$3,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,220.13 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x773b…a9a8backed No | 41c | 5,095$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,995.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9b…47eabacked No | 62c | 5,056$3,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,902.78 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +7.7wins | +0.29per pick | 36cpaid | +117%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1549…46f6backed No | 19c | 5,000$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,050 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1161…729abacked No | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,649.99 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x713d…53a9backed No | 28c | 5,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,619.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf523…edb2backed Yes | 40c | 4,875$1,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,943.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes | 61c | 4,824$2,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,963.66 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +11.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed No | 18c | 4,738$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,880.91 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…8a8fbacked No | 15c | 4,737$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,023.18 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked No | 11c | 4,722$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,214.22 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 15c | 4,708$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,999.71 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 12cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0213…f7e3backed No | 13c | 4,667$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,058.15 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…b99cbacked Yes | 78c | 4,612$3,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,581.04 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8a…80e6backed No | 32c | 4,526$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,063.93 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed No | 18c | 4,505$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,702.15 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d23…70febacked No | 73c | 4,472$3,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked No | 38c | 4,407$1,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,748.64 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc67a…9d51backed Yes | 20c | 4,397$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf1…ee87backed Yes | 14c | 4,357$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.91 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 37c | 4,334$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,582.46 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a2…94edbacked No | 80c | 4,184$3,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.83 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5752…47f5backed No | 20c | 4,130$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,306.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +401.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 52c | 4,017$2,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,946.33 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcc…fbc2backed No | 70c | 4,003$2,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed No | 23c | 3,830$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,956.23 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef1…2619backed No | 12c | 3,750$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,299.97 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…ffbebacked No | 32c | 3,726$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,538.62 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…b8f5backed No | 71c | 3,681$2,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.1 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…5758backed No | 30c | 3,676$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,578.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd626…89cebacked Yes | 18c | 3,601$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.44 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…a4d3backed Yes | 74c | 3,583$2,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,645.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…6d57backed Yes | 25c | 3,525$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.56 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 19c | 3,522$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,846.24 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…6979backed No | 14c | 3,489$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,002.51 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b9…f378backed No | 38c | 3,430$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,130.29 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch?this page
- Stable FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Stable FDV above $6B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.