Token Launches · resolved market
Stable FDV above $4B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc6e9607e1750fb8199008a68312f2fc39e8290cef2a07e32f4c55daa4a29a42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $733,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $867,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $733,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 390 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 0c | 39,676$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.35 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2785…70aebacked Yes | 0c | 29,954$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc88e…f3e1backed Yes | 14c | 28,450$3,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,872.99 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 79c | 23,086$18,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,776.44 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…1c08backed Yes | 0c | 22,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a1…2974backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 11cpaid | +445.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23b4…9b3bbacked Yes | 20c | 15,500$3,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,049.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c0…186dbacked No | 79c | 12,382$9,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,585.37 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +300.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd599…bf55backed Yes | 4c | 10,789$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.78 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,640$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…1e72backed Yes | 20c | 10,368$2,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe551…0a67backed No | 52c | 8,473$4,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,034.67 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +7.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…d901backed Yes | 0c | 6,714$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc604…51e6backed Yes | 53c | 6,252$3,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,336.86 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.36per pick | 63cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…f8c4backed Yes | 71c | 5,862$4,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,151.03 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 6c | 5,496$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.1 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40d…e3acbacked No | 59c | 5,172$3,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,110.27 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +184.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0c…7923backed Yes | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,249.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ed…a7c7backed No | 54c | 4,984$2,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,292.59 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebc9…70c1backed Yes | 42c | 4,280$1,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,806.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 13c | 4,227$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.03 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…cb8bbacked Yes | 23c | 4,184$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546b…0405backed No | 43c | 4,004$1,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,272.26 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +7.4wins | +0.41per pick | 42cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd13a…f72fbacked Yes | 22c | 4,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85be…5ec1backed Yes | 17c | 3,966$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.44 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 19c | 3,547$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.75 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…e757backed No | 79c | 3,000$2,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14dc…d4f4backed Yes | 21c | 3,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…3925backed Yes | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7052…ba33backed No | 31c | 3,000$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,069.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.98 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b3…fc94backed Yes | 6c | 2,926$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf09…a9e6backed Yes | 18c | 2,900$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8670…ed5abacked No | 54c | 2,509$1,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x943a…82d4backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c1…b8fabacked Yes | 4c | 2,370$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +137.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 57c | 2,327$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.39 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 47c | 2,125$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.66 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8c…dfaabacked Yes | 39c | 2,028$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…93aebacked No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7464…312ebacked Yes | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c2…29ebbacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 19cpaid | +132.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…875cbacked Yes | 51c | 1,945$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac8…fc51backed Yes | 46c | 1,889$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540c…a634backed Yes | 21c | 1,682$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 33c | 1,644$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.17 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa905…fd4fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,601$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 72c | 1,601$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.59 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…0b02backed Yes | 24c | 1,558$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.07 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf604…36b3backed Yes | 24c | 1,521$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.55 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1234…9bd1backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b2…fa27backed No | 76c | 1,500$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b5…090dbacked Yes | 34c | 1,500$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d75…8e95backed No | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed Yes | 16c | 1,500$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,460$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.48 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,434$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.33 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55e…c136backed No | 71c | 1,432$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 80c | 1,424$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.23 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 15c | 1,420$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,401$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…ec26backed Yes | 23c | 1,390$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e50…487bbacked No | 76c | 1,253$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.05 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…30cbbacked No | 59c | 1,200$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.93 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Yes | 32c | 1,114$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb343…46bbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,101$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2a…d8e2backed Yes | 21c | 1,100$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 45c | 1,099$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.68 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78de…b08bbacked No | 70c | 1,061$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…e055backed Yes | 17c | 1,002$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…8a8fbacked No | 62c | 1,002$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.59 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa553…6236backed No | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd179…74adbacked Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…1eccbacked Yes | 4c | 999.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…be8cbacked Yes | 16c | 981.63$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.81 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…717ebacked Yes | 2c | 975.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f58…7f17backed Yes | 29c | 959.4$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed Yes | 10c | 934.51$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9b…eb64backed Yes | 13c | 925.22$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.73 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa7…8ea1backed Yes | 44c | 871.82$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 20c | 867.9$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.89 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa1…fbd2backed Yes | 24c | 867.63$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…aaecbacked No | 76c | 862.35$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.09 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…eb9bbacked No | 60c | 812.38$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.13 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2048…f572backed Yes | 17c | 802$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.34 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…e62abacked No | 70c | 800$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…d0a7backed Yes | 22c | 775.62$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed Yes | 15c | 734.24$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.78 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 77c | 722.05$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.07 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed Yes | 24c | 714.5$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.77 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614a…c43dbacked Yes | 23c | 669.68$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked No | 45c | 666.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 4c | 662.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x070b…9ca2backed Yes | 4c | 650$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9a…9cc7backed No | 64c | 649.99$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0b…8996backed No | 79c | 622$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.9 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed No | 54c | 607.34$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.3 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e04…83ffbacked No | 51c | 600$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a6…fe97backed Yes | 2c | 579.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stable FDV above $4B one day after launch?this page
- Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Stable FDV above $6B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.