TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa55e…c136

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
73
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Dota2, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Dota2 at 57 out of 100; worst CS2 at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2025, EST3557.1%20 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+4.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5)backed Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+63.9%+$194.99
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$311Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$311
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$355Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+40.8%+$145
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$853Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$853
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$243Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$243.4
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$209Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+72.4%+$151.2
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$328Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+52.4%+$172
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO3)backed Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$307Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+30.3%+$92.9
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+44.9%+$77.5
Dota 2: Heroic vs 1win - Game 2 Winnerbacked Heroic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+63.9%+$62.01
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winnerbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,312Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+38%+$497.83
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winnerbacked Tundra Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+28.2%+$28
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Runa Team (BO3)backed Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$102
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Virtus.pro (BO3)backed Xtreme Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$100.18
Dota 2: Heroic vs Aurora - Game 1 Winnerbacked Heroic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$55
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Tundra Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$415Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+141%+$585.08
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 2 Winnerbacked Tundra Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,531Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+39.1%+$990.83
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 1 Winnerbacked Tundra Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+28.2%+$88
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$474Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$474.02
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winnerbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$10.7
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO5)backed Tundra Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$355Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+40.8%+$145
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$319Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$319.29
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$26.48
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$43
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST1346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,638Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+28.2%+$462
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$13,983Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+38.4%+$5,366.57
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$500
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$620Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+100.6%+$623.66
Over $15M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$525Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+42.9%+$225
Over $10M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$340
Will Almanak FDV above $50M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$63.58
HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$3,408Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$3,407.93
Stable FDV above $4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,017Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+40.8%+$415.28
Over $2M committed to the Makina public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$143.31
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$8,052Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+29.2%+$2,349.27
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,077Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$1,077.27
Over $200M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 13 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST1030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+88.7%+$42.3
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$3,076Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$3,075.72
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$302.4
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+37.6%+$73.49
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$111.6
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$351Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$350.96
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$998Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$997.77
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+314%+$157.02
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$37.86
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$21.38
All 10 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick69cpaid-65.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
CS2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+91.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$10,093Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+111.3%+$11,232.82
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,003Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+72.4%+$726.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 November 24-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+28.2%+$141.03
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$573Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$573.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-12-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$42
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.