TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Over $200M committed to the Monad public sale?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,484,734
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,556,030

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,484,734 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 407 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe3b6…86abbacked No1c121,356$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.654425%11 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf89e…ad9bbacked No11c113,755$13,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,073.33560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick27cpaid+110.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed No1c105,391$1,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.6413422.4%30 W · 104 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+175.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf6ed…ddadbacked No0c98,000$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1451241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick29cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a17…53f7backed No9c93,920$8,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,410.13540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf4d…1ee4backed No4c86,268$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2004415.9%7 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9db7…e0d8backed No2c78,000$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4301910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cc6…f0f8backed No2c63,515$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x189e…0434backed No9c62,467$5,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,602.521353.8%7 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.29per pick25cpaid+148%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed No9c59,000$5,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,383.072222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-52.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86f0…5174backed No8c58,031$4,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,355.0340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc10d…4532backed No4c57,272$2,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.09922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-63.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc79a…e0a4backed No6c52,818$3,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,092.22944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x493b…ff6dbacked No9c51,227$4,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,422.04425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc13c…a202backed No14c45,310$6,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,457.111963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+51.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa854…3856backed No0c37,873$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.71717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-26.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed No7c36,211$2,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,601.019422.3%21 W · 73 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb3a…deaabacked No3c33,219$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9004139%16 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+39.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0588…5596backed No10c29,045$2,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,901.572425%6 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b83…9318backed No10c27,925$2,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,718.642729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7314…8f46backed No2c24,708$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b17…abcdbacked No10c23,188$2,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,219.29520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-72.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b4a…12f4backed No15c22,579$3,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,361.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc483…8ac8backed No4c22,500$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.55040%20 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+29.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0048…ab1cbacked No2c20,906$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.562737%10 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-33.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e91…1717backed No9c20,000$1,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,833.55475%3 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.58per pick17cpaid+590.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfbbe…30bdbacked No9c19,474$1,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,783.5750%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x739c…e7abbacked No4c18,385$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.551637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eb3…ce7cbacked No2c18,323$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.76825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-61%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5dc2…f4b3backed No9c17,547$1,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,626.41560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3806…f4c4backed No0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf255…11a0backed No9c15,000$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,289.31140%0 W · 14 L-4.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x14ee…7537backed No7c15,000$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-88.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed No1c13,950$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.2119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-84.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x921f…8003backed No12c13,559$1,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,685.61119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-71%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed No0c13,333$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-80.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed No5c13,035$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.87425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-67.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa84f…bc44backed No8c13,035$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.876031.7%19 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f85…8693backed No7c12,860$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.342924.1%7 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-40.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa09…5a23backed No12c12,181$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b3c…c600backed No9c11,680$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.597132.4%23 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x624b…cee3backed No9c10,843$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.77425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+58.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78bc…2585backed No14c10,761$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c65…3e45backed No1c10,000$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.986735.8%24 W · 43 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+43.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa201…8ef0backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f2f…6cd4backed No2c10,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5acd…c079backed No10c9,979$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.49119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-87.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01ea…d11ebacked No1c9,820$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.05333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe26f…1545backed No3c9,266$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.171020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-56%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeaf…998cbacked No1c9,231$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.14650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-25.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed No0c9,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x029e…0159backed No14c8,992$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,246.18837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No8c8,846$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.487663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ce9…734ebacked No1c8,687$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba45…87f3backed No1c8,446$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.732540%10 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4103…2403backed No1c8,333$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd2d…84e6backed No7c8,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.557240.3%29 W · 43 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x17f9…fbafbacked No9c7,909$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1258…0c15backed No15c7,263$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.32015%3 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-50.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b6…18b0backed No9c7,126$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8022…789fbacked No2c7,035$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked No1c7,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42287.1%2 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-66.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88da…a8e2backed No3c6,988$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.9633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+54.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe599…0dd3backed No2c6,742$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.251010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-65%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ea…a094backed No8c6,689$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3d2…f38bbacked No10c6,492$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.331540%6 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40f0…a193backed No2c5,685$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001225%3 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No13c5,632$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.0923841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9c9f…a649backed No9c5,621$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf373…32e4backed No0c5,464$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-35.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7cb…4c84backed No5c5,455$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-44.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6303…ed2cbacked No3c5,336$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.26333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe29…b07ebacked No15c5,304$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.882814.3%4 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5602…6351backed No5c5,300$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.52429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9359…6aacbacked No8c5,227$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.974632.6%15 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3aaa…f6dfbacked No12c5,109$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x363a…df44backed No3c5,100$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.211931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick24cpaid-18.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb16a…81cbbacked No13c5,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7622…8f80backed No10c4,750$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.550%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9b…c85ebacked No14c4,674$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.73450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x981d…0741backed No1c4,660$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.492520%5 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+43%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cef…d4debacked No2c4,545$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-66.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa323…e0eebacked No18c4,500$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.42040%8 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1c3…06f8backed No10c4,471$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.86633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6113…2443backed No1c4,397$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ca…2632backed No6c4,350$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.19911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+65.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13cb…5f65backed No10c4,324$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.28666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick31cpaid+148.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0814…875abacked No5c4,323$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2031513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-34.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4abe…11ecbacked No12c4,290$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.842646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf19f…008abacked No6c4,229$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.35475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+66.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No11c4,205$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.5135712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x78fb…c0bdbacked No3c4,000$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed No12c4,000$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4883724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x49a6…7049backed No1c4,000$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d65…7d4abacked No7c3,714$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2603834.2%13 W · 25 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb31…9e68backed No8c3,520$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2851030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No8c3,490$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.21263.8%1 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick16cpaid-91.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d61…d501backed No6c3,386$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.022619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-67%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a5e…3c03backed No9c3,331$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.07425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+69.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc140…59e0backed No6c3,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.