Token Launches · resolved market
Over $200M committed to the Monad public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf31b6eadffdf7440cd3e298f67bc8a5f7698da278023eb1b455403c515c90b1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,484,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,556,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,484,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 407 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3b6…86abbacked No | 1c | 121,356$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.65 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf89e…ad9bbacked No | 11c | 113,755$13,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,073.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 1c | 105,391$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,442.64 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ed…ddadbacked No | 0c | 98,000$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a17…53f7backed No | 9c | 93,920$8,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,410.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4d…1ee4backed No | 4c | 86,268$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…e0d8backed No | 2c | 78,000$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…f0f8backed No | 2c | 63,515$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…0434backed No | 9c | 62,467$5,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,602.52 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.29per pick | 25cpaid | +148%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed No | 9c | 59,000$5,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,383.07 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…5174backed No | 8c | 58,031$4,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,355.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…4532backed No | 4c | 57,272$2,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,299.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc79a…e0a4backed No | 6c | 52,818$3,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,092.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x493b…ff6dbacked No | 9c | 51,227$4,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,422.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…a202backed No | 14c | 45,310$6,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,457.11 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa854…3856backed No | 0c | 37,873$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 7c | 36,211$2,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,601.01 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3a…deaabacked No | 3c | 33,219$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…5596backed No | 10c | 29,045$2,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,901.57 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…9318backed No | 10c | 27,925$2,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,718.64 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7314…8f46backed No | 2c | 24,708$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…abcdbacked No | 10c | 23,188$2,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,219.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…12f4backed No | 15c | 22,579$3,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,361.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…8ac8backed No | 4c | 22,500$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.5 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0048…ab1cbacked No | 2c | 20,906$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.56 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e91…1717backed No | 9c | 20,000$1,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,833.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.58per pick | 17cpaid | +590.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…30bdbacked No | 9c | 19,474$1,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,783.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x739c…e7abbacked No | 4c | 18,385$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.55 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…ce7cbacked No | 2c | 18,323$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…f4b3backed No | 9c | 17,547$1,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,626.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3806…f4c4backed No | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…11a0backed No | 9c | 15,000$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.31 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x14ee…7537backed No | 7c | 15,000$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x148e…bb48backed No | 1c | 13,950$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.2 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x921f…8003backed No | 12c | 13,559$1,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,685.61 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -71%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 0c | 13,333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 5c | 13,035$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 8c | 13,035$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.87 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed No | 7c | 12,860$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.34 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa09…5a23backed No | 12c | 12,181$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…c600backed No | 9c | 11,680$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.59 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…cee3backed No | 9c | 10,843$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed No | 14c | 10,761$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed No | 1c | 10,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa201…8ef0backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2f…6cd4backed No | 2c | 10,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…c079backed No | 10c | 9,979$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.49 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ea…d11ebacked No | 1c | 9,820$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe26f…1545backed No | 3c | 9,266$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeaf…998cbacked No | 1c | 9,231$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed No | 0c | 9,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x029e…0159backed No | 14c | 8,992$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 8,846$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.48 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…734ebacked No | 1c | 8,687$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba45…87f3backed No | 1c | 8,446$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.73 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…2403backed No | 1c | 8,333$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 7c | 8,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.55 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17f9…fbafbacked No | 9c | 7,909$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1258…0c15backed No | 15c | 7,263$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.3 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b6…18b0backed No | 9c | 7,126$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8022…789fbacked No | 2c | 7,035$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked No | 1c | 7,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88da…a8e2backed No | 3c | 6,988$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe599…0dd3backed No | 2c | 6,742$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ea…a094backed No | 8c | 6,689$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d2…f38bbacked No | 10c | 6,492$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.33 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f0…a193backed No | 2c | 5,685$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 13c | 5,632$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.09 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9f…a649backed No | 9c | 5,621$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf373…32e4backed No | 0c | 5,464$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…4c84backed No | 5c | 5,455$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…ed2cbacked No | 3c | 5,336$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b07ebacked No | 15c | 5,304$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.88 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…6351backed No | 5c | 5,300$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.5 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked No | 8c | 5,227$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.97 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aaa…f6dfbacked No | 12c | 5,109$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…df44backed No | 3c | 5,100$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.21 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb16a…81cbbacked No | 13c | 5,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7622…8f80backed No | 10c | 4,750$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…c85ebacked No | 14c | 4,674$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…0741backed No | 1c | 4,660$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…d4debacked No | 2c | 4,545$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa323…e0eebacked No | 18c | 4,500$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.4 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…06f8backed No | 10c | 4,471$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6113…2443backed No | 1c | 4,397$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ca…2632backed No | 6c | 4,350$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.19 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…5f65backed No | 10c | 4,324$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +148.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0814…875abacked No | 5c | 4,323$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4abe…11ecbacked No | 12c | 4,290$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.84 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf19f…008abacked No | 6c | 4,229$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 4,205$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.51 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…c0bdbacked No | 3c | 4,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 12c | 4,000$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49a6…7049backed No | 1c | 4,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…7d4abacked No | 7c | 3,714$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb31…9e68backed No | 8c | 3,520$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 8c | 3,490$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.21 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -91.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…d501backed No | 6c | 3,386$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.02 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5e…3c03backed No | 9c | 3,331$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc140…59e0backed No | 6c | 3,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $200M committed to the Monad public sale?this page
- Over $1.2B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $1.4B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $1.6B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $1B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $225M committed to the Monad public sale?Yes won
- Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?Yes won
- Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $2B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $3B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.