Token Launches · resolved market
Over $2B committed to the Monad public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e1d9d73ae742ee45b4c46f7b2fb82b5acb7666a33810a30c97c87e363178291
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $527,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $558,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $527,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes | 1c | 50,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 0c | 43,207$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.65 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 1c | 40,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 1c | 26,100$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.8 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 1c | 22,122$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.32 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 0c | 12,222$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe12…93a1backed Yes | 14c | 10,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4c…1061backed Yes | 1c | 7,600$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…a60ebacked Yes | 1c | 7,558$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910d…5a46backed Yes | 2c | 5,975$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 4c | 5,230$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x741b…d021backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4567…b970backed Yes | 0c | 4,900$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 1c | 4,168$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f4…631dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,587$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,421$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…f0fdbacked Yes | 0c | 3,100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…0448backed Yes | 0c | 3,001$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…4abdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…2a23backed Yes | 16c | 2,984$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.29 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbf…58c2backed Yes | 1c | 2,571$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,559$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 0c | 2,507$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…cb7abacked Yes | 3c | 2,122$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…8a8fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,969$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,886$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…3f04backed Yes | 9c | 1,700$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +137.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…fc9fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,666$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 1c | 1,651$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 1c | 1,571$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…cf5cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,351$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe21…479fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,308$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c09…df0bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,171$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -91.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99fb…0542backed Yes | 3c | 943.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…cfcbbacked Yes | 13c | 901.43$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282d…94d5backed Yes | 16c | 800$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc570…5557backed Yes | 10c | 800$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked Yes | 16c | 712.08$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…9aadbacked Yes | 2c | 689.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…fe86backed Yes | 13c | 474.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…2177backed Yes | 16c | 450$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…0a21backed Yes | 6c | 434$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29e5…8b3bbacked Yes | 27c | 376.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…b703backed No | 79c | 229.68$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…24c4backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 11c | 198$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…6edbbacked Yes | 21c | 160.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…b13ebacked No | 11c | 150$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +144%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fd…aae9backed No | 78c | 128.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b99…ae20backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…4c08backed Yes | 51c | 117$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9937…5c2fbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…7d4abacked Yes | 14c | 110.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…adc4backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +11.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +54%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7af6…83cabacked Yes | 22c | 78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…04a2backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…4d7dbacked No | 49c | 67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79d…4350backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $2B committed to the Monad public sale?this page
- Over $1.2B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $1.4B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $1.6B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $1B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $200M committed to the Monad public sale?Yes won
- Over $225M committed to the Monad public sale?Yes won
- Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?Yes won
- Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $3B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.