Token Launches · resolved market
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1639beb1e60b6eb6d36613e9e4ad1baf1f7ae21c011a4ddf65966bfce58cb62a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,727,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,683,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,727,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,011 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02e4…f0aebacked Yes | 67c | 202,553$135,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135,130.02 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed Yes | 54c | 148,540$80,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80,845.62 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11b…7a96backed No | 76c | 131,108$100,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,975.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ec…9f79backed No | 40c | 94,960$37,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57,150.37 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 42cpaid | +147.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e15…cfdbbacked No | 71c | 88,188$62,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,245.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 15c | 79,318$12,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67,267.33 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcb…bf17backed Yes | 0c | 58,205$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 15c | 56,954$8,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,342.94 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…fbbfbacked Yes | 16c | 55,596$8,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,925.99 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…e6f2backed No | 71c | 42,130$29,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,214.38 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53f…f455backed Yes | 21c | 40,000$8,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,300 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39ef…8ce6backed Yes | 23c | 40,000$9,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,199.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23f4…c234backed Yes | 40c | 39,531$15,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,841.49 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…1744backed Yes | 28c | 34,394$9,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,495.17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Yes | 60c | 31,000$18,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,750 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…6195backed Yes | 18c | 30,000$5,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,399.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…9318backed Yes | 13c | 29,038$3,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,662.64 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b1…0f83backed Yes | 28c | 29,030$8,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,002.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e5…6208backed No | 65c | 27,362$17,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,523.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.24per pick | 34cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4203…6ff7backed Yes | 4c | 26,600$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1070…9124backed Yes | 4c | 26,173$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.34 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 11cpaid | +737.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5c…bb60backed Yes | 28c | 26,160$7,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,294.68 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +148.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeac2…176dbacked Yes | 23c | 25,271$5,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,817.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3531…4fb3backed No | 79c | 24,946$19,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,213.33 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe270…10b5backed Yes | 27c | 24,250$6,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,589.98 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f3…1602backed Yes | 12c | 22,200$2,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,636 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…fe97backed Yes | 33c | 21,052$6,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,999.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0802…0eefbacked Yes | 24c | 20,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49d…8ee0backed Yes | 30c | 19,372$5,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,743.38 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…8218backed No | 76c | 18,745$14,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,499.04 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d46…6233backed Yes | 54c | 18,160$9,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,806.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 1c | 18,013$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.54 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…f4c8backed No | 51c | 17,777$8,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,798.7 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 17,737$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.06 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb741…a996backed No | 47c | 17,077$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,076.77 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +119%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xef36…d7eebacked Yes | 7c | 17,045$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2048…f572backed No | 41c | 15,960$6,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,362.83 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…c911backed Yes | 14c | 15,746$2,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,202.35 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 42c | 15,656$6,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,055.55 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff44…9e86backed Yes | 27c | 15,000$3,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,975.73 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…c90dbacked Yes | 15c | 14,890$2,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,222.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…915ebacked Yes | 31c | 14,713$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa746…d20dbacked Yes | 2c | 14,197$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed No | 72c | 13,927$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,927.45 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78de…b08bbacked Yes | 65c | 13,852$9,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,004.09 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 4c | 13,127$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.1 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf965…2fcdbacked Yes | 22c | 13,100$2,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,873 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.34per pick | 56cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb45…952dbacked Yes | 25c | 13,060$3,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,230.4 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked No | 70c | 13,030$9,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,909.28 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed No | 73c | 13,029$9,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,501.76 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33ef…c498backed Yes | 19c | 12,617$2,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,361.92 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x724b…e780backed No | 80c | 12,500$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x621d…5447backed No | 42c | 12,213$5,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,066.64 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +60%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 12,187$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.29 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfe…ab8dbacked No | 63c | 12,146$7,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,530.15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd71f…31bdbacked Yes | 34c | 11,533$3,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,958.48 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40d…37d9backed No | 69c | 11,000$7,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,399.99 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2616…8d3cbacked Yes | 3c | 11,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked No | 29c | 10,855$3,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,760.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +295.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15d2…fc10backed Yes | 9c | 10,692$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 26c | 10,600$2,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,771.2 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 43c | 10,466$4,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,457 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…8b22backed Yes | 26c | 10,374$2,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,714.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed Yes | 15c | 10,325$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.25 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 4c | 10,000$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.2 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed Yes | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,500 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 16c | 10,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d7…eaf2backed Yes | 4c | 10,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +307.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 0c | 9,812$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe26f…1545backed No | 43c | 9,709$4,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,509.41 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked No | 60c | 9,640$5,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,887.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…4198backed Yes | 5c | 9,636$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 44c | 9,490$4,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,360.57 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84ed…a7c7backed Yes | 57c | 9,229$5,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,242.08 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x910d…5a46backed Yes | 18c | 8,806$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes | 13c | 8,591$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.41 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…217ebacked Yes | 14c | 8,479$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.78 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x342b…3596backed No | 73c | 8,253$5,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,262.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca3…590fbacked No | 76c | 8,191$6,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,926.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…fecfbacked Yes | 18c | 8,000$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.76 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…6efebacked No | 76c | 7,719$5,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,855.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 61c | 7,718$4,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,008.62 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…4dfcbacked No | 73c | 7,689$5,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,082.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…772cbacked Yes | 43c | 7,500$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c8…c1c9backed No | 78c | 7,500$5,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,639.98 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…005dbacked No | 72c | 7,401$5,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,045.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c36…c1efbacked No | 43c | 7,400$3,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,218 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9189…7250backed No | 80c | 7,297$5,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.98 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 16c | 7,000$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d32…563abacked No | 72c | 6,944$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,944.44 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd179…74adbacked No | 73c | 6,830$4,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,875.34 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…c600backed Yes | 32c | 6,817$2,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,213.24 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 6c | 6,691$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.77 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes | 27c | 6,287$1,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,722 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ec…646dbacked Yes | 8c | 6,271$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…220cbacked No | 77c | 6,243$4,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410.03 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783e…d7c8backed No | 69c | 6,132$4,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,884.3 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc9…59b7backed No | 28c | 6,056$1,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,335.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?this page
- Over $1.2B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $1.4B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $1.6B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $1B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $200M committed to the Monad public sale?Yes won
- Over $225M committed to the Monad public sale?Yes won
- Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?Yes won
- Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $2B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $3B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.