TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Over $225M committed to the Monad public sale?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,056,361
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,895,149

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,056,361 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3f61…e259backed No1c236,364$2,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,218.725028%14 W · 36 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-44.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe3b6…86abbacked No0c171,000$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7654425%11 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a09…af0fbacked No2c100,109$1,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,978.541921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-46.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf32…14ecbacked No0c68,900$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.84812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-76.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked No12c56,599$6,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,549.992133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1cc…0f81backed No1c44,000$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b6…18b0backed No4c37,922$1,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,622.540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf4d…1ee4backed No6c36,259$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2504415.9%7 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c05…0b97backed No1c34,930$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.2820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ad5…f961backed No1c34,222$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.4950%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x783e…d7c8backed No0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7ee…9597backed No1c31,531$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.6516247.5%77 W · 85 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed No2c30,819$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.12222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-52.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x624b…cee3backed No7c26,663$1,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,941.95425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+58.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1258…0c15backed No5c24,345$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.662015%3 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-50.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9b…c85ebacked No5c19,339$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x493b…ff6dbacked No8c18,724$1,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581.54425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked No1c17,300$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.07287.1%2 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-66.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe683…55d6backed No1c16,872$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x797a…7924backed No1c14,722$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.122218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad89…fe86backed No1c12,913$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.361915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-60.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5b9…f10cbacked No3c11,958$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-48.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed No7c11,849$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.2513422.4%30 W · 104 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+175.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1e10…beeebacked No0c11,150$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.15190%0 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed No1c11,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009352.7%49 W · 44 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc9d7…b28cbacked No0c10,675$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe613…540ebacked No1c10,064$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.95219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-77.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14ee…7537backed No1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-88.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc79a…e0a4backed No4c10,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d8…d91bbacked No3c8,687$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab8e…c5b5backed No1c8,288$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.55333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+108.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cf1…ee87backed No1c8,000$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974318.6%8 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+67.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcffe…4fbcbacked No1c7,714$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.8720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b6a…c3f0backed No1c7,404$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d5…c8d6backed No1c7,143$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+32.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd063…5ccdbacked No3c6,433$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.053132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa84f…bc44backed No7c6,240$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.336031.7%19 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2616…8d3cbacked No2c6,000$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1115135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67e2…42d9backed No9c5,852$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cef…c3ccbacked No3c5,770$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.1812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+525%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b79…b838backed No8c5,150$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.982138.1%8 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb36…7afbbacked No2c4,640$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.51717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-61.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb780…e404backed No9c4,600$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed No2c4,426$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-80.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed No3c4,403$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.699422.3%21 W · 73 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d65…7d4abacked No3c4,329$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1113834.2%13 W · 25 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6eb3…ce7cbacked No3c3,986$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.08825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-61%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed No1c3,952$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.481520%3 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-38.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff7…291ebacked No2c3,500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.51118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick9cpaid+32.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a5e…3c03backed No5c3,500$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+69.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d61…d501backed No1c3,378$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-67%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa795…29f1backed No7c2,668$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6040…d6aabacked No2c2,664$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49130%0 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21b6…83d8backed No7c2,500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1658017.5%14 W · 66 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3ca…d08bbacked No4c2,474$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.94520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-68.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3b…a4c0backed No2c2,444$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-62%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed No2c2,365$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.645832.8%19 W · 39 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-23.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f08…ad05backed No3c2,256$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7160%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fd5…4836backed No1c2,107$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-43.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2874…c2e7backed No2c2,100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.42231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58f1…d591backed No5c2,100$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69eb…46e5backed No1c2,050$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.75147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7314…8f46backed No2c2,031$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed No7c2,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-67.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x902a…c212backed No2c1,952$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.96333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid-35.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb209…280fbacked No9c1,887$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb94f…6470backed No1c1,778$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+59%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No1c1,774$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.294763.8%30 W · 17 L+10.3wins+0.22per pick42cpaid+48.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x0643…8eccbacked No1c1,718$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.43120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c1,538$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.277663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb5b…f9a9backed No2c1,276$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89ac…8e15backed No6c1,229$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.761631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a7d…7d55backed No1c1,224$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+112.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xead8…4f6ebacked No2c1,200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ef3…c555backed No2c1,200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick36cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf15…bdaebacked No3c1,120$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40f0…a193backed No3c1,071$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301225%3 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe85c…7eb6backed No3c1,029$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd937…cb9abacked No2c1,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-68%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc353…d087backed No5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-52.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7c9…0f2bbacked No5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505655.4%31 W · 25 L+13.4wins+0.24per pick31cpaid+86.6%equal weight68+0.17 edge/pick
0x987c…56e7backed No3c1,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2640%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x23ab…7f74backed No1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92eb…986abacked No1c954.55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb74…f712backed No2c869.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea89…1dc9backed No2c869.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-66.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe50e…968ebacked No1c830$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.79520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-72.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdcd…7865backed No7c825.86$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.812958.6%17 W · 12 L+4.9wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+36%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf9aa…5b6ebacked No2c812.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6322…0491backed No1c800$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25b9…2970backed No5c800$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405048%24 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5e…9b70backed No3c800$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick28cpaid-38.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed No2c731.05$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.68119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-84.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x69e7…c7b4backed No3c714.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c86…10a5backed No1c701.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-25.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdea…27a7backed No3c700$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc60d…11ccbacked No2c633.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0d4…28f3backed No4c611.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-58.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad64…65efbacked No3c584.03$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.20per pick35cpaid+26.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No2c574.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1933329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.