TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,717,589
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,503,779

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,717,589 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 449 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7744…999ebacked Yes8c147,070$11,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,640.113525.7%9 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-36%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100557.3%4 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-76.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39ef…8ce6backed Yes8c70,235$5,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,521.16812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick38cpaid-84.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes3c38,550$1,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,323.824233.3%14 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+28.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes0c35,789$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.37137.7%1 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-85.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f24…c911backed Yes3c30,600$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.325240.4%21 W · 31 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe521…a60ebacked Yes11c30,385$3,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4101421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8de0…87a0backed Yes16c30,012$4,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,701.862123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd588…cec0backed Yes2c28,577$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.498521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-57.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fea…d5bfbacked Yes9c27,229$2,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,450.61933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23f4…c234backed Yes11c24,937$2,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,639.364938.8%19 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd49d…8ee0backed Yes19c24,062$4,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,631.151241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b3c…c600backed Yes17c21,112$3,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,588.977132.4%23 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1070…9124backed Yes2c20,401$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.711435.7%5 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick11cpaid+737.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd71f…31bdbacked Yes6c20,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001520%3 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-58.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb45…915ebacked Yes10c20,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001625%4 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-52.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x283d…1e84backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-61.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce60…fdf0backed Yes15c19,377$2,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,997.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57e4…835ebacked No78c18,694$14,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,194.327759.7%46 W · 31 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0802…0eefbacked Yes12c16,500$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,979.9740%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes1c15,277$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.872377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No64c15,084$9,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,451.561866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Yes53c15,000$7,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,899.994847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb741…a996backed No65c14,522$9,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,022.272871.4%20 W · 8 L+7.9wins+0.28per pick43cpaid+119%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed Yes3c12,222$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.12040%8 W · 12 L+3.8wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+76.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa56d…82e7backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-84.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a4…8178backed Yes2c10,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1802520%5 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-55.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d7…eaf2backed Yes3c10,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3101315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+307.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes7c10,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-75.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebb4…f390backed Yes12c10,000$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2301833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-40.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14b9…f378backed No16c9,594$1,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,021.232240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50f7…3da2backed Yes8c9,423$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.13742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick25cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed Yes0c8,824$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.15650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+39.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37f0…6edabacked Yes7c8,450$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.453826.3%10 W · 28 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe270…10b5backed Yes10c8,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8006634.8%23 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No11c7,705$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,840.1610462.5%65 W · 39 L+13.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+22.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x910d…5a46backed Yes16c7,584$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2292814.3%4 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2874…99e0backed Yes2c7,400$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes25c7,200$1,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7689747.4%46 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c6,828$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.957663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x624b…cee3backed No16c6,375$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,367.42425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+58.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f5c…bb60backed Yes17c5,900$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0032250%11 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+148.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x683a…3b03backed No74c5,765$4,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,509.992544%11 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x55c5…a686backed Yes15c5,592$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.52138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5d18…ec31backed Yes11c5,584$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.591118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.26per pick44cpaid-74.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed Yes8c5,300$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41513023.8%31 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33ef…c498backed Yes11c5,250$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.363531.4%11 W · 24 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-50.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes1c5,222$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.446116.4%10 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+95.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf674…f4c8backed No76c5,169$3,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.53444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa746…d20dbacked Yes2c5,156$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-70.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes5c5,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid-27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64ec…9f79backed No75c5,000$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2501070%7 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick42cpaid+147.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes6c5,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003619.4%7 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0db2…1fc3backed Yes14c4,757$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c59…2b38backed Yes20c4,735$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.591346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81b1…0f83backed Yes12c4,693$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x948c…42eebacked Yes13c4,500$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5853633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c9…1b1abacked Yes11c4,398$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes14c4,397$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.522740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-22.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9fb8…b90fbacked Yes4c4,042$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.842429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2616…8d3cbacked No74c4,000$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0405135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes7c4,000$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29112528%35 W · 90 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x981d…0741backed Yes9c3,945$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.72520%5 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+43%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes23c3,862$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.196431.3%20 W · 44 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa958…fecfbacked Yes20c3,728$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.912810.7%3 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-73.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b02…caa6backed Yes20c3,606$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7261833.3%6 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf164…b99cbacked Yes9c3,500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3151936.8%7 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcd5…aa9ebacked Yes20c3,499$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.851050%5 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+29.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa2ff…772cbacked Yes17c3,345$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.634030%12 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb45…952dbacked Yes21c3,300$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6962015%3 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-54%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbcc9…59b7backed No55c3,251$1,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,475.12966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+40.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb52d…95ffbacked No47c3,095$1,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,651.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+44.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72d3…cbf2backed Yes1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick16cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfaab…e6f2backed Yes7c3,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2104744.7%21 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes14c3,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.9910045%45 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c8f…929fbacked Yes13c2,938$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0897…b4f4backed Yes4c2,788$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-77.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4269…4616backed Yes9c2,778$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-80.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x700a…de0cbacked Yes2c2,700$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.51020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-70.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No15c2,670$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,270.9723841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed Yes19c2,660$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.43122.6%7 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-39.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eaa…8922backed Yes19c2,566$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x002b…b414backed Yes4c2,564$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c2,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30932.2%2 W · 91 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes18c2,304$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.722222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-52.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbfa…b299backed Yes22c2,300$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-65.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59f6…ab47backed Yes25c2,280$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.05450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x325c…0a32backed Yes1c2,228$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-44.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes26c2,225$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.72742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+87.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69eb…46e5backed Yes1c2,220$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.09147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1073…2e80backed Yes9c2,201$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20070%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes14c2,143$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003625%9 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed Yes15c2,130$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.2820551.2%105 W · 100 L+13.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x189e…0434backed No21c2,113$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,670.291353.8%7 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.29per pick25cpaid+148%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x42c4…93a7backed Yes24c2,083$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.926127.9%17 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e32…1744backed Yes12c2,041$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.891040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes5c2,036$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.8263.8%1 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick16cpaid-91.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x49a8…7153backed Yes18c2,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3601921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-62.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x05fd…50c9backed Yes7c2,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402560%15 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+30%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4cf1…ee87backed Yes8c2,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504318.6%8 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+67.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.