TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,118,741
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,811,545

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,118,741 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,381 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x89cd…4d7dbacked Yes2c202,000$3,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6522050%10 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e15…cfdbbacked No14c121,737$17,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104,248.68742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb48a…e843backed Yes12c120,593$14,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,249.18944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes31c107,565$33,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,639.213525.7%9 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-36%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf152…fefbbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-70%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe270…10b5backed Yes14c93,485$12,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,633.766634.8%23 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f9c…34d9backed Yes40c92,000$36,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,339.982634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a17…53f7backed No29c88,101$25,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,801.95540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Yes71c88,100$62,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,373.03742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+329.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5858…fbbfbacked Yes39c84,973$33,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,308.453243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc13c…a202backed No79c72,352$57,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,905.641963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+51.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1070…9124backed Yes17c69,034$11,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,415.751435.7%5 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick11cpaid+737.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfaab…e6f2backed Yes67c62,759$42,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,227.454744.7%21 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa672…f083backed Yes39c53,715$20,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,904.171833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-45.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39ef…8ce6backed Yes29c48,401$14,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,157.95812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick38cpaid-84.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8138…3c88backed No59c46,114$27,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,105.11050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…6195backed Yes80c45,873$36,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,537.6530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes12c45,644$5,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,488.432934.5%10 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-16.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes11c45,333$5,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,041.524233.3%14 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+28.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7e76…ef4ebacked No55c44,552$24,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,069.393033.3%10 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-45.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9db7…e0d8backed No79c44,000$34,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,417.231910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed No76c41,981$31,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,005.25425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-67.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0aa3…64e9backed Yes28c40,676$11,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,565.18650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+498.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5e…e4a4backed No15c34,452$5,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,448.564100%4 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+212.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes16c33,832$5,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,383.7557.3%4 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-76.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x471b…b18fbacked Yes16c33,163$5,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,144.192416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-55.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bfe…ab8dbacked Yes36c31,782$11,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,4781060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes15c31,567$4,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,609.5728.3%6 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-69.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa440…a2d1backed Yes4c30,675$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.25520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-56.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd49d…8ee0backed Yes17c29,850$5,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,167.81241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3531…4fb3backed No62c28,639$17,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,960.264129.3%12 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x189e…0434backed No20c27,951$5,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,223.861353.8%7 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.29per pick25cpaid+148%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xce7a…9238backed Yes41c27,142$11,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,184.99475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+41.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc79a…e0a4backed No34c26,200$8,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,272.95944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cfa…b608backed No6c25,552$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,907.772853.6%15 W · 13 L+5.8wins+0.21per pick33cpaid+340.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xef36…d7eebacked Yes31c25,199$7,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,819.99425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-52.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes40c23,700$9,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,471.62714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-75.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No80c22,788$18,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,601.261866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x56c5…dbcfbacked Yes2c22,199$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.121844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes15c22,151$3,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,255.3335712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x366f…856cbacked Yes18c21,920$3,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,866.06837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc905…4dfcbacked No70c21,549$15,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,368.161353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe65e…60a4backed Yes15c20,911$3,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,04810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fd4…370ebacked No19c18,619$3,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,132.982100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+267.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x15d2…fc10backed Yes10c18,429$1,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,795.591225%3 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82a2…94edbacked Yes11c18,411$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.132240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcec1…9dffbacked Yes28c17,869$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52a7…f856backed No65c17,849$11,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,202.98540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdad7…9994backed No68c17,802$12,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,752.18650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed No35c17,446$6,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,4229422.3%21 W · 73 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff44…9e86backed Yes70c17,388$12,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,238.081233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-41.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes12c17,375$2,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,027.083724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked No23c17,000$3,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,058.967545.3%34 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf05e…95b0backed Yes10c16,788$1,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,711.511346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.19per pick27cpaid+52.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4bb5…dd47backed Yes2c16,615$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb3a…deaabacked No10c15,501$1,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,973.054139%16 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+39.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x23f4…c234backed Yes14c15,429$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2004938.8%19 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes75c15,000$11,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,174.9610045%45 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ee…7537backed Yes4c14,999$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.94166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-88.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb24e…c0bebacked Yes7c14,740$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.13938.5%15 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eb8…82e6backed No72c14,340$10,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,015.621118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick26cpaid+94.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes4c14,259$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-80.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes56c14,186$7,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,888.379747.4%46 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf684…18cfbacked Yes0c14,007$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.831118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-70%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed No38c13,956$5,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,695.655832.8%19 W · 39 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-23.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ff2…df13backed No60c13,769$8,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,458.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc11b…7a96backed No36c13,755$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,754.993100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+109.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc94b…217ebacked Yes22c13,285$2,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,907.253339.4%13 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf855…efa9backed Yes68c13,055$8,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,819.471070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb26…0d01backed Yes70c12,819$9,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,015.9740%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5424…2ef3backed Yes73c12,623$9,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,208.6714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-71.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4429…4409backed Yes72c12,455$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,000425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-65.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes10c12,306$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2651625%4 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes10c11,867$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.391833.3%6 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+63.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f24…c911backed Yes10c11,660$1,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,187.825240.4%21 W · 31 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0588…5596backed Yes14c11,571$1,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,626.62425%6 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf632…02aabacked Yes8c11,505$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.24714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-61.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4433…ca27backed No34c11,451$3,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,509.01450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+98%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x724b…e780backed No17c11,436$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,435.71560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+82.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes25c11,110$2,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,777.464450%22 W · 22 L+6.7wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+95.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x783e…d7c8backed No9c11,024$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,033.811735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes7c11,009$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.743625%9 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe80f…3354backed Yes26c11,003$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9002832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-36.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ae5…1f90backed Yes11c10,980$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes9c10,810$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.953619.4%7 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21cd…6148backed Yes66c10,705$7,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,077.791145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-31.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fb8…b90fbacked Yes11c10,637$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.072429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes4c10,544$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.231030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes1c10,300$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.7944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes15c10,270$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.646116.4%10 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+95.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78de…b08bbacked Yes2c10,094$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.281735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+96.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes20c10,012$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002825%7 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-48.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd45…3dd4backed No39c9,971$3,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,044.953630.6%11 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+83.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x243c…2240backed No31c9,893$3,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,811.386937.7%26 W · 43 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+87.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5718…db20backed No71c9,831$6,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,838.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe26f…1545backed No48c9,792$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,092.141020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-56%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed Yes25c9,766$2,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,442.7919543.1%84 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d7…eaf2backed Yes20c9,723$1,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,941.811315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+307.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0643…8eccbacked Yes5c9,712$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.43120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b83…9318backed No16c9,094$1,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,664.992729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.