Token Launches · resolved market
Over $3B committed to the Monad public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53ed3f1a424f4ff1ad81b11e0e6d0c9afc3d207d4d08dacaa9947d154863fa66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $548,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $387,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $548,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 0c | 73,796$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.8 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 0c | 69,208$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.42 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 0c | 16,378$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 1c | 7,253$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…cf5cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,524$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…68bcbacked Yes | 1c | 5,035$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45f4…631dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,218$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.96 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 1c | 2,972$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 0c | 2,789$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 1c | 2,600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 1c | 2,029$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741b…d021backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1580…7ca8backed Yes | 1c | 1,978$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 1c | 1,955$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,583$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked Yes | 6c | 1,092$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…e564backed Yes | 2c | 1,072$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,020$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…8bfabacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3d…1df3backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed Yes | 3c | 937.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99fb…0542backed Yes | 2c | 648.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282d…94d5backed Yes | 4c | 259.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…7d4abacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8881…b21dbacked Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…6edbbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c09…df0bbacked Yes | 8c | 168.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 9c | 138.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $3B committed to the Monad public sale?this page
- Over $1.2B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $1.4B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $1.6B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $1B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $200M committed to the Monad public sale?Yes won
- Over $225M committed to the Monad public sale?Yes won
- Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?Yes won
- Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $2B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.