TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,615,565
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,572,116

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,615,565 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 476 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes3c135,304$4,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,549.13557.3%4 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-76.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed Yes16c112,223$18,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,202.328532.9%28 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x471b…b18fbacked Yes3c100,000$3,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,003.92416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-55.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa672…f083backed Yes1c55,000$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.671833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-45.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa90a…041fbacked Yes19c49,686$9,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,611.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c5…dbcfbacked Yes6c43,289$2,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,724.061844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ec8…82aebacked Yes7c40,743$2,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,727.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa440…a2d1backed Yes8c36,876$2,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,846.48520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-56.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39ef…8ce6backed Yes17c34,473$5,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,769.98812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick38cpaid-84.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes2c28,620$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.123619.4%7 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9da…8826backed Yes17c28,212$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,700955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+109.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x739c…e7abbacked No75c27,772$20,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,945.481637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes18c27,061$4,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,779.93837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed Yes6c26,104$1,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,569.0219543.1%84 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe26f…1545backed Yes1c25,066$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-56%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5858…fbbfbacked Yes3c24,891$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.653243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf135…112dbacked Yes2c24,413$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.86520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22e3…4ae5backed Yes4c24,065$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1070…9124backed Yes4c21,720$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.191435.7%5 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick11cpaid+737.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc7d7…eaf2backed Yes2c21,398$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.831315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+307.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf82c…0f6fbacked Yes7c21,031$1,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.672250%11 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9db7…e0d8backed Yes4c20,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe270…10b5backed Yes24c16,000$3,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,839.996634.8%23 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64f1…3268backed Yes4c15,500$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.77333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-55.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc9c…270ebacked Yes6c15,379$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.17650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+100.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b3c…c600backed Yes7c14,569$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.467132.4%23 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes4c14,334$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5803625%9 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa958…fecfbacked Yes4c14,275$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.952810.7%3 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-73.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1bc…b8f1backed Yes4c13,506$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.251346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bfa…2d2ebacked Yes8c12,952$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes1c12,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0588…5596backed Yes13c11,896$1,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,557.42425%6 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa17b…3a62backed Yes3c10,970$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ccd…6a1dbacked No79c10,262$8,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,129.581040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80c5…65d1backed Yes2c10,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.011323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ee…7537backed Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-88.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3527…c1b5backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc79a…e0a4backed Yes18c10,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3b6…86abbacked Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304425%11 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x82a2…94edbacked Yes7c9,900$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6882240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc824…df08backed Yes4c9,829$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.111921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e76…ef4ebacked Yes5c9,789$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.63033.3%10 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-45.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb24e…c0bebacked Yes4c9,652$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.943938.5%15 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1bf…80dabacked No74c9,453$7,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,446.661952.6%10 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes5c9,119$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.087121.1%15 W · 56 L-0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2171…924bbacked Yes11c9,000$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.5770%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8a0…2c5abacked Yes7c8,700$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.32347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24f8…0841backed Yes4c8,564$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.762718.5%5 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-57.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc94b…217ebacked Yes3c8,400$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.23339.4%13 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde54…444dbacked Yes3c8,354$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.5520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-61.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x205e…1925backed Yes7c8,350$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes23c8,327$1,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,951.864450%22 W · 22 L+6.7wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+95.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc13c…a202backed No77c8,312$6,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,933.81963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+51.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked Yes6c8,148$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.231866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf419…9728backed Yes3c8,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes18c7,728$1,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,408.2535712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd1a4…8178backed Yes2c7,500$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.52520%5 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-55.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe047…e509backed Yes4c7,418$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.971723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61d7…01f0backed Yes5c7,000$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.752138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes8c6,936$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.194233.3%14 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+28.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x22d1…b52bbacked Yes12c6,685$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3531…4fb3backed Yes46c6,308$2,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,914.464129.3%12 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf674…f4c8backed No79c6,241$4,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3093444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes2c6,164$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-65.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes2c6,073$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.64944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5d9…be50backed Yes2c6,056$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.41911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-75.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ae5…1f90backed Yes24c6,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21cd…6148backed Yes8c6,000$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4621145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-31.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes3c5,872$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.167545.3%34 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09f4…f869backed Yes56c5,654$3,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,152.55425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc2…9271backed Yes3c5,588$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1854731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes2c5,570$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.086116.4%10 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+95.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05e1…3efebacked Yes4c5,539$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc02d…92c1backed Yes2c5,311$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1252347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes2c5,198$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.381127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6d…f4b1backed No75c5,034$3,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-55.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21b6…83d8backed Yes7c5,034$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.48017.5%14 W · 66 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33b…ff7dbacked Yes4c4,689$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x958f…a83cbacked Yes4c4,478$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.41931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-47.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7447…e2d3backed Yes11c4,412$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001612.5%2 W · 14 L-4.0wins-0.25per pick38cpaid-74.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xefad…4191backed Yes1c4,300$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid-20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8944…41d5backed Yes21c4,266$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.892532%8 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick23cpaid-9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a09…af0fbacked Yes8c4,187$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.511921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-46.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x597e…cd70backed Yes3c4,060$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402055%11 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x923d…2c28backed No70c4,056$2,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,202.691030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bce…59a2backed Yes1c4,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x263f…f9b2backed Yes4c3,996$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.3240%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e4…f7febacked Yes8c3,972$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.91241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e11…b5a8backed Yes1c3,849$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.29333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes11c3,837$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.788739.1%34 W · 53 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes14c3,614$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.694032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c73…44f4backed Yes1c3,500$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb3a…deaabacked Yes3c3,457$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004139%16 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+39.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcab8…b955backed Yes3c3,380$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.642425%6 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccd3…af17backed Yes13c3,332$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes6c3,255$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-80.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7fc…85a7backed Yes8c3,254$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.631752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+374.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes8c3,252$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.193724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6ca…b27abacked Yes6c3,246$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.292035%7 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1258…0c15backed Yes6c3,126$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.082015%3 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-50.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.