Token Launches · resolved market
Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcca73d3eb81fdf17e7514abc46919508a112824a9c0b56df676b26f655344e37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,615,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,572,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,615,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 476 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 3c | 135,304$4,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,549.13 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 16c | 112,223$18,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,202.32 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked Yes | 3c | 100,000$3,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,003.9 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed Yes | 1c | 55,000$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.67 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa90a…041fbacked Yes | 19c | 49,686$9,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,611.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c5…dbcfbacked Yes | 6c | 43,289$2,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,724.06 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…82aebacked Yes | 7c | 40,743$2,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,727.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa440…a2d1backed Yes | 8c | 36,876$2,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,846.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39ef…8ce6backed Yes | 17c | 34,473$5,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,769.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 2c | 28,620$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.12 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…8826backed Yes | 17c | 28,212$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,700 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x739c…e7abbacked No | 75c | 27,772$20,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,945.48 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 18c | 27,061$4,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,779.93 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 6c | 26,104$1,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,569.02 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe26f…1545backed Yes | 1c | 25,066$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…fbbfbacked Yes | 3c | 24,891$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.65 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…112dbacked Yes | 2c | 24,413$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e3…4ae5backed Yes | 4c | 24,065$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1070…9124backed Yes | 4c | 21,720$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.19 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 11cpaid | +737.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d7…eaf2backed Yes | 2c | 21,398$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.83 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +307.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82c…0f6fbacked Yes | 7c | 21,031$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.67 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…e0d8backed Yes | 4c | 20,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe270…10b5backed Yes | 24c | 16,000$3,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,839.99 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f1…3268backed Yes | 4c | 15,500$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9c…270ebacked Yes | 6c | 15,379$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…c600backed Yes | 7c | 14,569$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.46 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes | 4c | 14,334$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…fecfbacked Yes | 4c | 14,275$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.95 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…b8f1backed Yes | 4c | 13,506$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfa…2d2ebacked Yes | 8c | 12,952$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 1c | 12,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…5596backed Yes | 13c | 11,896$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,557.4 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa17b…3a62backed Yes | 3c | 10,970$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…6a1dbacked No | 79c | 10,262$8,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,129.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…65d1backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.01 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ee…7537backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3527…c1b5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc79a…e0a4backed Yes | 18c | 10,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b6…86abbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a2…94edbacked Yes | 7c | 9,900$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc824…df08backed Yes | 4c | 9,829$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.11 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e76…ef4ebacked Yes | 5c | 9,789$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.6 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb24e…c0bebacked Yes | 4c | 9,652$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.94 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bf…80dabacked No | 74c | 9,453$7,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,446.66 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 5c | 9,119$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.08 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2171…924bbacked Yes | 11c | 9,000$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.57 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a0…2c5abacked Yes | 7c | 8,700$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.3 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24f8…0841backed Yes | 4c | 8,564$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.76 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…217ebacked Yes | 3c | 8,400$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.2 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde54…444dbacked Yes | 3c | 8,354$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x205e…1925backed Yes | 7c | 8,350$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 23c | 8,327$1,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,951.86 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…a202backed No | 77c | 8,312$6,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,933.8 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 6c | 8,148$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.23 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…9728backed Yes | 3c | 8,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 7,728$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408.25 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…8178backed Yes | 2c | 7,500$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe047…e509backed Yes | 4c | 7,418$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.97 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d7…01f0backed Yes | 5c | 7,000$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.75 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 8c | 6,936$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.19 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22d1…b52bbacked Yes | 12c | 6,685$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3531…4fb3backed Yes | 46c | 6,308$2,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,914.46 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…f4c8backed No | 79c | 6,241$4,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 2c | 6,164$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,073$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d9…be50backed Yes | 2c | 6,056$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.41 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae5…1f90backed Yes | 24c | 6,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21cd…6148backed Yes | 8c | 6,000$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes | 3c | 5,872$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.16 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…f869backed Yes | 56c | 5,654$3,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,152.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc2…9271backed Yes | 3c | 5,588$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 2c | 5,570$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.08 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…3efebacked Yes | 4c | 5,539$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc02d…92c1backed Yes | 2c | 5,311$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 2c | 5,198$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6d…f4b1backed No | 75c | 5,034$3,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed Yes | 7c | 5,034$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.4 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33b…ff7dbacked Yes | 4c | 4,689$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…a83cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,478$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.4 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…e2d3backed Yes | 11c | 4,412$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefad…4191backed Yes | 1c | 4,300$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…41d5backed Yes | 21c | 4,266$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.89 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…af0fbacked Yes | 8c | 4,187$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.51 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597e…cd70backed Yes | 3c | 4,060$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x923d…2c28backed No | 70c | 4,056$2,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bce…59a2backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…f9b2backed Yes | 4c | 3,996$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…f7febacked Yes | 8c | 3,972$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e11…b5a8backed Yes | 1c | 3,849$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 11c | 3,837$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.78 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 14c | 3,614$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.69 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c73…44f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3a…deaabacked Yes | 3c | 3,457$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcab8…b955backed Yes | 3c | 3,380$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd3…af17backed Yes | 13c | 3,332$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 6c | 3,255$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fc…85a7backed Yes | 8c | 3,254$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.63 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +374.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 8c | 3,252$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.19 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…b27abacked Yes | 6c | 3,246$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.29 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1258…0c15backed Yes | 6c | 3,126$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.08 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale?this page
- Over $1.2B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $1.4B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $1.6B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $1B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $200M committed to the Monad public sale?Yes won
- Over $225M committed to the Monad public sale?Yes won
- Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?Yes won
- Over $2B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $3B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.