Token Launches · resolved market
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81011e0a04a9e82473b7c1519163896767f4ee0ad4bfc6617450971042f79df5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,067,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,276,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,067,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,861 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc79a…e0a4backed No | 29c | 272,762$79,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79,420.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…af0fbacked No | 55c | 201,054$109,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109,708.75 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…fbbfbacked Yes | 37c | 198,007$73,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124,962.27 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a17…53f7backed No | 64c | 175,000$112,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112,752.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 62c | 173,725$108,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65,396.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…82e6backed No | 24c | 173,164$40,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,967.29 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 44c | 125,757$55,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69,840.28 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…4dfcbacked No | 13c | 123,590$16,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,321.32 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e6…389dbacked No | 40c | 112,742$44,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,990.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa90a…041fbacked Yes | 52c | 102,500$53,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,410.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 63c | 91,819$58,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58,150.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…34d9backed Yes | 50c | 91,081$45,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,849.44 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b6…86abbacked No | 44c | 87,407$38,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,846.56 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 32c | 75,363$23,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,504.18 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed Yes | 58c | 71,098$41,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,011.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb48a…e843backed Yes | 34c | 70,000$24,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,999.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e15…cfdbbacked No | 43c | 67,687$28,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,883.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb90…883cbacked Yes | 41c | 67,176$27,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,689.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8998…cdf3backed No | 8c | 62,085$5,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,050.01 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe270…10b5backed Yes | 42c | 61,685$25,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,024.79 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 24c | 60,729$14,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,104.84 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5c…bb60backed No | 66c | 59,641$39,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,323.62 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +148.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 62c | 59,150$36,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,400.77 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc2…9271backed Yes | 72c | 55,598$40,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,399.73 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…9238backed Yes | 42c | 53,732$22,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,900.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked Yes | 30c | 53,502$15,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,536.04 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…e6f2backed Yes | 72c | 52,689$37,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,889.41 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…a202backed No | 47c | 51,060$23,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,909.75 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2616…8d3cbacked Yes | 61c | 50,508$30,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,573.44 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed Yes | 49c | 48,022$23,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,354.17 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd52…0001backed Yes | 52c | 46,932$24,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,650.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef36…d7eebacked Yes | 53c | 46,623$24,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,873.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Yes | 79c | 46,363$36,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,901.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3c…2fa7backed No | 22c | 44,310$9,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,754.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…4532backed No | 52c | 42,023$21,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,797.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…ea55backed No | 19c | 42,000$7,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,973.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…33c3backed Yes | 47c | 39,282$18,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,905.89 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x739c…e7abbacked No | 33c | 39,112$12,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,713.68 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x869c…2483backed Yes | 47c | 38,699$18,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,693.04 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 55c | 38,187$21,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,085.98 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b5…a40fbacked No | 34c | 37,635$12,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,813.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…a7babacked Yes | 42c | 34,872$14,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,258.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…b679backed Yes | 80c | 34,325$27,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,025.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…12f4backed No | 57c | 33,871$19,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,353.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…abcdbacked No | 45c | 32,182$14,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,454.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…be8cbacked Yes | 54c | 32,005$17,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,668.31 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.50per pick | 36cpaid | +133.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6a…a368backed Yes | 55c | 31,456$17,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,270.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39ef…8ce6backed Yes | 79c | 30,505$24,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,374.95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd870…33b8backed No | 34c | 30,485$10,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,247.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…5174backed No | 25c | 30,481$7,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,717.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6adc…bebabacked No | 36c | 30,248$10,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,900.29 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Yes | 41c | 28,214$11,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,694.88 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 46c | 27,942$12,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,152.79 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c5…dbcfbacked Yes | 67c | 27,181$18,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,039.41 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d9…be50backed Yes | 45c | 24,140$10,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,292.28 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…6a1dbacked No | 61c | 23,781$14,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,589.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21cd…6148backed Yes | 56c | 23,131$13,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,070.58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbe…3f9fbacked No | 49c | 22,994$11,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,153.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f42bbacked Yes | 58c | 22,006$12,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,155.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +329.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933f…d300backed Yes | 43c | 21,684$9,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,454.57 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8a…e4cdbacked No | 54c | 20,856$11,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,217.03 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…112dbacked Yes | 30c | 20,850$6,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,621.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0202…e262backed Yes | 34c | 20,480$6,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,520.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa440…a2d1backed Yes | 46c | 20,372$9,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,937.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…0434backed No | 26c | 20,354$5,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,357.14 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.29per pick | 25cpaid | +148%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes | 45c | 20,184$9,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,123.79 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9f…a649backed No | 49c | 19,280$9,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,467.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 51c | 17,442$8,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,531.76 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91b…7f5fbacked No | 56c | 17,233$9,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,658.91 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc02d…92c1backed Yes | 71c | 16,936$11,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,950.32 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…e0d8backed No | 48c | 16,533$8,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,016 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4d…1ee4backed No | 39c | 16,025$6,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,222.89 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9a…00afbacked No | 62c | 15,962$9,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,961 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x923d…2c28backed No | 35c | 15,455$5,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,360.47 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…30bdbacked No | 69c | 15,141$10,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,396.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff44…9e86backed Yes | 55c | 15,000$8,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,750 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…4aa2backed Yes | 66c | 14,944$9,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,108.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -62%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda1e…f3cdbacked No | 57c | 14,479$8,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,207.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89ac…8e15backed Yes | 66c | 14,301$9,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,882.91 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d00…a40cbacked No | 45c | 14,115$6,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,342.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49d…8ee0backed Yes | 49c | 13,999$6,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,198.94 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 41c | 13,960$5,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,195.45 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…4409backed Yes | 73c | 13,916$10,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,725.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…7b9ebacked No | 36c | 13,700$4,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,932 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x205e…1925backed Yes | 78c | 13,624$10,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,030.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 41c | 13,462$5,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,893.42 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 55c | 13,439$7,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,990.67 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48d1…4903backed No | 53c | 13,400$7,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,096 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…c600backed Yes | 44c | 13,099$5,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,324.22 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x621d…5447backed No | 38c | 13,081$5,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,022.36 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +60%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 46c | 13,006$5,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,922.52 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e88…ea74backed Yes | 47c | 12,723$5,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,806.39 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3379…549abacked No | 36c | 12,674$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,600 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 70c | 12,398$8,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,709.38 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…24dbbacked No | 58c | 12,309$7,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,190.54 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8203…0187backed Yes | 76c | 12,299$9,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,931.17 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -84%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6d…f4b1backed No | 54c | 12,182$6,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,518.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fa…44e5backed Yes | 45c | 12,127$5,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,623.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 27cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…467bbacked No | 68c | 11,769$7,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,966.44 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 31c | 11,720$3,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,048.86 | 207 | 50.7%105 W · 102 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?this page
- Over $1.2B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $1.4B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $1.6B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $1B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $200M committed to the Monad public sale?Yes won
- Over $225M committed to the Monad public sale?Yes won
- Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $2B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $3B committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
- Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.