TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Token Launches · resolved market

Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,067,485
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,276,702

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,067,485 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,861 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc79a…e0a4backed No29c272,762$79,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79,420.39944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a09…af0fbacked No55c201,054$109,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109,708.751921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-46.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5858…fbbfbacked Yes37c198,007$73,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124,962.273243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a17…53f7backed No64c175,000$112,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112,752.56540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes62c173,725$108,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,396.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb8…82e6backed No24c173,164$40,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,967.291118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick26cpaid+94.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes44c125,757$55,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,840.284450%22 W · 22 L+6.7wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+95.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc905…4dfcbacked No13c123,590$16,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,321.321353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6e6…389dbacked No40c112,742$44,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,990.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa90a…041fbacked Yes52c102,500$53,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,410.19425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed No63c91,819$58,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,150.55425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-67.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f9c…34d9backed Yes50c91,081$45,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,849.442634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3b6…86abbacked No44c87,407$38,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,846.564425%11 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes32c75,363$23,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,504.18557.3%4 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-76.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes58c71,098$41,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,011.64714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-75.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb48a…e843backed Yes34c70,000$24,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,999.91944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e15…cfdbbacked No43c67,687$28,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,883.58742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb90…883cbacked Yes41c67,176$27,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,689.82742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8998…cdf3backed No8c62,085$5,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,050.01837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe270…10b5backed Yes42c61,685$25,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,024.796634.8%23 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed Yes24c60,729$14,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,104.842040%8 W · 12 L+3.8wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+76.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4f5c…bb60backed No66c59,641$39,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,323.622250%11 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+148.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes62c59,150$36,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,400.773619.4%7 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc2…9271backed Yes72c55,598$40,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,399.734731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xce7a…9238backed Yes42c53,732$22,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,900.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+41.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x471b…b18fbacked Yes30c53,502$15,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,536.042416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-55.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfaab…e6f2backed Yes72c52,689$37,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,889.414744.7%21 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc13c…a202backed No47c51,060$23,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,909.751963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+51.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2616…8d3cbacked Yes61c50,508$30,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,573.445135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa672…f083backed Yes49c48,022$23,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,354.171833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-45.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd52…0001backed Yes52c46,932$24,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,650.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-35.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef36…d7eebacked Yes53c46,623$24,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,873.33425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-52.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Yes79c46,363$36,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,901.68580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+76.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d3c…2fa7backed No22c44,310$9,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,754.94742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc10d…4532backed No52c42,023$21,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,797.99922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-63.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc78…ea55backed No19c42,000$7,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,973.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…33c3backed Yes47c39,282$18,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,905.891070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x739c…e7abbacked No33c39,112$12,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,713.681637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x869c…2483backed Yes47c38,699$18,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,693.041833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-43.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed No55c38,187$21,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,085.989422.3%21 W · 73 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b5…a40fbacked No34c37,635$12,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,813.8616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-66%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0da…a7babacked Yes42c34,872$14,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,258.68333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00e1…b679backed Yes80c34,325$27,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,025.35650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b4a…12f4backed No57c33,871$19,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,353.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b17…abcdbacked No45c32,182$14,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,454.52520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-72.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked Yes54c32,005$17,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,668.31785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.5wins+0.50per pick36cpaid+133.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7b6a…a368backed Yes55c31,456$17,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,270.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39ef…8ce6backed Yes79c30,505$24,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,374.95812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick38cpaid-84.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd870…33b8backed No34c30,485$10,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,247.72742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86f0…5174backed No25c30,481$7,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,717.2440%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked No36c30,248$10,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,900.292133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Yes41c28,214$11,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,694.884847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes46c27,942$12,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,152.799747.4%46 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56c5…dbcfbacked Yes67c27,181$18,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,039.411844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d9…be50backed Yes45c24,140$10,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,292.28911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-75.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ccd…6a1dbacked No61c23,781$14,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,589.251040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21cd…6148backed Yes56c23,131$13,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,070.581145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-31.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbbe…3f9fbacked No49c22,994$11,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,153.38425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-68.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Yes58c22,006$12,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,155.11742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+329.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x933f…d300backed Yes43c21,684$9,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,454.571127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-52.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a8a…e4cdbacked No54c20,856$11,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,217.032330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-35.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf135…112dbacked Yes30c20,850$6,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,621.99520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0202…e262backed Yes34c20,480$6,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,520.99837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+25.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa440…a2d1backed Yes46c20,372$9,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,937.82520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-56.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x189e…0434backed No26c20,354$5,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,357.141353.8%7 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.29per pick25cpaid+148%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes45c20,184$9,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,123.792740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-22.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9c9f…a649backed No49c19,280$9,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,467.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes51c17,442$8,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,531.762714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf91b…7f5fbacked No56c17,233$9,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,658.912227.3%6 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc02d…92c1backed Yes71c16,936$11,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,950.322347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9db7…e0d8backed No48c16,533$8,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0161910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf4d…1ee4backed No39c16,025$6,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,222.894415.9%7 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b9a…00afbacked No62c15,962$9,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,96110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x923d…2c28backed No35c15,455$5,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,360.471030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbbe…30bdbacked No69c15,141$10,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,396.0450%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff44…9e86backed Yes55c15,000$8,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,7501233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-41.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9a38…4aa2backed Yes66c14,944$9,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,108.22425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-62%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda1e…f3cdbacked No57c14,479$8,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,207.54825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-56.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x89ac…8e15backed Yes66c14,301$9,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,882.911631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d00…a40cbacked No45c14,115$6,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,342.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd49d…8ee0backed Yes49c13,999$6,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,198.941241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes41c13,960$5,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,195.454233.3%14 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+28.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4429…4409backed Yes73c13,916$10,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,725.21425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-65.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d77…7b9ebacked No36c13,700$4,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,932812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-74%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x205e…1925backed Yes78c13,624$10,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,030.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed Yes41c13,462$5,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,893.428532.9%28 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked Yes55c13,439$7,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,990.671866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x48d1…4903backed No53c13,400$7,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0961145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+105.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b3c…c600backed Yes44c13,099$5,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,324.227132.4%23 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x621d…5447backed No38c13,081$5,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,022.361070%7 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick48cpaid+60%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed No46c13,006$5,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,922.527234.7%25 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e88…ea74backed Yes47c12,723$5,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,806.391353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3379…549abacked No36c12,674$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,600633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-45.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed Yes70c12,398$8,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,709.3819743.1%85 W · 112 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef65…24dbbacked No58c12,309$7,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,190.541172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8203…0187backed Yes76c12,299$9,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,931.171612.5%2 W · 14 L-4.8wins-0.30per pick42cpaid-84%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5d6d…f4b1backed No54c12,182$6,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,518.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-55.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7fa…44e5backed Yes45c12,127$5,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,623.47757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick27cpaid+91.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a9a…467bbacked No68c11,769$7,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,966.444129.3%12 W · 29 L-4.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-41.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed Yes31c11,720$3,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,048.8620750.7%105 W · 102 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.