TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf91b…7f5f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
34
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: CS2, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 52 out of 100; worst NBA at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT2227.3%6 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.94
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$2,815Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,814.98
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$140
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$360
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,857Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+162.7%+$3,021.01
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,544Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+72.6%+$1,121.51
Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$188.21
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$111.3
Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$63.17
Over $140M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$90.31
Over $160M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$34.78
Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$67.98
Kinetiq FDV above $150M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$590Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$589.64
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will the Monad public sale commitments be less than $400M?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,827Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+102.2%+$1,867.4
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$12,864Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+100.1%+$12,872.5
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$9,659Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$9,658.91
Over $40M committed to the Solomon public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$2,184Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+230.3%+$5,028.64
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$5,562Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+69.7%+$3,874.87
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$855Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$855.47
All 22 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 29, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mavericks vs. Lakersbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$43.07
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+123.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3)backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+123.2%+$123.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chiefs vs. Billsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+50.6%+$50.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$510Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$509.56
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.