Token Launches · resolved market
Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x023b0528262d555d28058f2012a5fc1ad1285c64e1a1d0ac6bf838d06e69b56c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,322,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,303,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,322,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 251 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f9c…34d9backed Yes | 7c | 471,064$34,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,468.89 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c0…df0bbacked Yes | 40c | 31,796$12,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,777.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 2c | 21,132$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.38 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed Yes | 2c | 17,239$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.63 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb013…6b3abacked Yes | 2c | 16,455$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.4 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82c…0f6fbacked Yes | 27c | 15,955$4,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,283.25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…fa1fbacked Yes | 0c | 14,227$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 13,641$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.47 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa944…461abacked No | 78c | 12,775$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,774.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 67c | 11,878$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,877.6 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…f0fdbacked Yes | 1c | 11,679$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes | 31c | 10,940$3,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,392.58 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…923bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb48a…e843backed Yes | 7c | 10,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc2…9271backed Yes | 39c | 8,953$3,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,534.68 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…b335backed Yes | 50c | 8,821$4,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,385.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x030e…5652backed Yes | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910d…5a46backed Yes | 9c | 7,048$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…e32ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,007$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.9 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe210…b956backed Yes | 25c | 5,241$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc452…7234backed No | 70c | 5,054$3,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,523.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed No | 64c | 4,609$2,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660.71 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 47c | 4,589$2,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,413.94 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e50…487bbacked Yes | 41c | 4,232$1,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,744.65 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4c…392fbacked No | 61c | 4,120$2,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,594.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…ec33backed Yes | 12c | 4,002$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 13c | 3,578$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.19 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 45c | 3,386$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.09 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…a912backed Yes | 14c | 3,250$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 10c | 3,196$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.63 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd0…e582backed Yes | 29c | 3,017$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…3f66backed No | 45c | 3,004$1,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,652.37 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e9…ff48backed Yes | 7c | 2,998$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…217ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,850$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.8 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed Yes | 36c | 2,797$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.74 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed Yes | 7c | 2,758$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.77 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a48…4332backed No | 75c | 2,658$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e4…c23fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,580$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.91 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 25c | 2,570$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.33 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed Yes | 12c | 2,515$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.82 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9349…8d0fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 49c | 2,241$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.35 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf91b…7f5fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,210$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 57c | 2,192$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.16 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 1c | 2,160$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe150…7eb1backed Yes | 12c | 2,116$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…e6f2backed Yes | 13c | 2,030$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.59 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked No | 52c | 2,000$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7e…23ebbacked No | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9763…a292backed No | 76c | 1,960$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.06 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d36…c4dbbacked Yes | 16c | 1,938$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.14 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…b0a7backed Yes | 40c | 1,808$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -31%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…c600backed Yes | 6c | 1,800$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa901…d418backed Yes | 5c | 1,795$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb373…c8b0backed No | 59c | 1,680$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15bf…fd64backed Yes | 3c | 1,670$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27c1…e882backed Yes | 5c | 1,667$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…24c4backed No | 52c | 1,650$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.44 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…0099backed No | 45c | 1,552$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +312.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d47…1908backed Yes | 7c | 1,515$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5807…da1ebacked Yes | 32c | 1,500$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce61…8ef6backed Yes | 29c | 1,500$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,497$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea07…d8b7backed Yes | 6c | 1,448$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.95 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…8f86backed Yes | 6c | 1,388$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…48c1backed Yes | 33c | 1,349$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.95 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…0e24backed No | 75c | 1,340$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b04…38b2backed No | 58c | 1,335$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…c6b7backed Yes | 16c | 1,243$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1c…a94dbacked Yes | 49c | 1,239$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 77c | 1,236$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.28 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1da9…3710backed No | 64c | 1,206$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.88 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 56c | 1,172$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.49 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c1…51aabacked No | 77c | 1,152$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…bb15backed No | 45c | 1,110$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…9aadbacked Yes | 17c | 1,092$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.78 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 22c | 1,068$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.42 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…bca8backed No | 64c | 1,016$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…3c7abacked Yes | 38c | 1,003$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3d…7198backed No | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…c90dbacked Yes | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…915ebacked Yes | 31c | 999.99$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc860…1454backed Yes | 28c | 990.81$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc146…327dbacked Yes | 50c | 974.76$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…1081backed Yes | 61c | 897.84$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…0302backed Yes | 23c | 887.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 50c | 879.84$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.92 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 6c | 857.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 27c | 822.63$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.87 | 156 | 37.2%58 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…0e63backed Yes | 24c | 821.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a3…5249backed Yes | 60c | 800$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…ecf7backed Yes | 11c | 799.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.9 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0234…62dabacked Yes | 8c | 797.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes | 18c | 785.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a4…9303backed Yes | 32c | 781.63$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe219…d8afbacked Yes | 33c | 777$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa553…6236backed Yes | 57c | 775.86$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…94fbbacked No | 79c | 754.85$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed42…c27abacked No | 73c | 734.48$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 10c | 700$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- Kinetiq FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Kinetiq FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- Kinetiq FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.