Token Launches · resolved market
Kinetiq FDV above $500M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa3ac6b035dc097551fb48c2abf3eeea2dca7ac052ce90d45e023c3fba588baf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $654,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $632,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $654,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 404 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 2c | 46,803$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.04 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24aa…c32cbacked Yes | 26c | 22,048$5,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,755.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 18,348$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.84 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a7…aa8ebacked Yes | 7c | 14,342$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…8a8fbacked No | 45c | 11,710$5,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,445.91 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…6beabacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…2ca8backed Yes | 46c | 10,971$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…245bbacked Yes | 9c | 10,731$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc2…5dbbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,051$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc628…54f0backed No | 10c | 10,023$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,013.37 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x08e5…e255backed No | 13c | 8,926$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,735.34 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd0…e582backed Yes | 7c | 8,276$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…c6e3backed No | 70c | 7,461$5,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,255.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed Yes | 46c | 6,523$2,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,996.3 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a3…33dbbacked No | 53c | 6,368$3,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,972.39 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +215.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 2c | 6,000$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 5,477$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.1 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 43c | 5,194$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,973.43 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…e6f2backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 28c | 4,987$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398.23 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a09…e317backed No | 50c | 4,914$2,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,456.82 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +9.8wins | +0.38per pick | 47cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd2…1fe9backed Yes | 6c | 4,726$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…f1bbbacked Yes | 4c | 4,443$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e50…487bbacked No | 55c | 4,350$2,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,957.48 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b04…38b2backed No | 68c | 4,347$2,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…b0a7backed Yes | 3c | 4,294$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -31%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes | 19c | 4,074$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.86 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed Yes | 76c | 4,000$3,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,021.52 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…f8c4backed No | 58c | 3,774$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,573.61 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4085…583fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,688$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…a292backed No | 30c | 3,374$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,374.38 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae1b…728cbacked Yes | 6c | 3,339$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39ee…c018backed Yes | 23c | 3,063$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0213…f7e3backed Yes | 3c | 3,012$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d36…c4dbbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 1c | 2,988$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb33…c377backed No | 63c | 2,903$1,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.22 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…8acbbacked No | 27c | 2,830$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,057.61 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…7a73backed No | 18c | 2,771$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,271.09 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.43per pick | 44cpaid | +181.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0af5…2470backed Yes | 60c | 2,673$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa8…d9d4backed Yes | 0c | 2,667$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe391…f0b1backed Yes | 5c | 2,553$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…6738backed No | 38c | 2,505$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,565.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked Yes | 38c | 2,500$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da9…3710backed No | 59c | 2,477$1,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.07 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…8ab7backed Yes | 1c | 2,393$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…f0fdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,278$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4f…fda5backed Yes | 34c | 2,145$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.18 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f7…2294backed No | 59c | 2,106$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,051$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bec…f7b7backed Yes | 21c | 2,041$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.41 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc214…105dbacked Yes | 11c | 2,001$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x861d…f4adbacked Yes | 27c | 1,990$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…d7ffbacked Yes | 26c | 1,915$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…c84bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,888$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x753a…0e2cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,877$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.58 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2eed…6e59backed Yes | 13c | 1,876$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3981…f906backed No | 57c | 1,786$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…da27backed Yes | 28c | 1,706$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…0c09backed Yes | 28c | 1,684$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x630a…c051backed Yes | 24c | 1,670$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a3…5249backed Yes | 13c | 1,670$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.39 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…3d7abacked Yes | 29c | 1,670$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ea…c7fabacked Yes | 29c | 1,662$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaccb…df96backed Yes | 24c | 1,650$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8628…6f0bbacked No | 71c | 1,632$1,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf626…f9f0backed Yes | 6c | 1,531$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.69 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -54%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b7…52bdbacked Yes | 24c | 1,527$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…68e1backed No | 54c | 1,483$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x560d…c148backed Yes | 7c | 1,459$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b7…fcfbbacked Yes | 28c | 1,447$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82c…0f6fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…aad4backed Yes | 26c | 1,379$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bf…68dbbacked Yes | 28c | 1,342$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…0b02backed Yes | 23c | 1,330$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…4113backed Yes | 28c | 1,323$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c95…f83fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,260$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…b335backed Yes | 8c | 1,257$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5afd…63fcbacked Yes | 29c | 1,250$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…24c4backed No | 72c | 1,234$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.78 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1418…5261backed Yes | 24c | 1,213$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.29 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dba…a4dfbacked Yes | 29c | 1,207$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a8…9850backed Yes | 54c | 1,200$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.89 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb439…7418backed Yes | 17c | 1,179$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…d28cbacked Yes | 27c | 1,178$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19df…224abacked Yes | 26c | 1,166$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…0185backed Yes | 27c | 1,159$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdd…b206backed Yes | 28c | 1,124$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeed1…d782backed Yes | 60c | 1,110$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x515a…1055backed Yes | 19c | 1,100$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 4c | 1,078$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb36…9c57backed Yes | 26c | 1,048$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b52…654bbacked Yes | 38c | 1,029$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3705…e48ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,028$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…7fbebacked Yes | 29c | 1,013$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…cf4bbacked No | 76c | 1,010$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc0…d2cebacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc3…081fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 19cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kinetiq FDV above $500M one day after launch?this page
- Kinetiq FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Kinetiq FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- Kinetiq FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.