Token Launches · resolved market
Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe68176bffbd011dd86a7ca81364eb967959bc9cde024b4c4846933663fd25f05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $830,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $809,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $830,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 518 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24aa…c32cbacked Yes | 68c | 64,833$43,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,898.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed Yes | 0c | 47,097$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 66c | 46,632$30,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,901.58 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc628…54f0backed No | 65c | 34,364$22,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,865.49 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f1…11eebacked Yes | 34c | 33,000$11,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,219 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +397.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…68e1backed No | 33c | 21,164$6,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,174.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 7c | 17,403$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.36 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3529…a6d9backed Yes | 56c | 16,154$9,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,036.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb50…be06backed No | 47c | 14,828$6,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,928.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…3044backed Yes | 35c | 14,030$4,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,952.68 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 12,564$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.2 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9564…3a32backed No | 70c | 11,227$7,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,318.93 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8892…ec13backed No | 77c | 11,035$8,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,535.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…82e6backed Yes | 1c | 10,885$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a09…e317backed No | 30c | 10,664$3,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,485.07 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +9.8wins | +0.38per pick | 47cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…8a8fbacked No | 13c | 10,063$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,781.12 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 4c | 10,000$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x910d…5a46backed Yes | 2c | 9,798$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacfc…f09dbacked Yes | 53c | 9,379$4,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,946.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes | 35c | 9,081$3,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,170.11 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…c6e3backed No | 24c | 9,057$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,906.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…b0a7backed Yes | 34c | 8,441$2,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,831.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -31%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82c…0f6fbacked Yes | 8c | 7,762$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.29 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ba…4e57backed No | 72c | 7,569$5,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,101.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21fc…60dcbacked Yes | 45c | 7,526$3,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,386.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4c…392fbacked No | 70c | 7,452$5,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,249.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db7…d20ebacked Yes | 24c | 6,974$1,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,686.79 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc452…7234backed No | 73c | 6,628$4,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,774.78 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe210…b956backed Yes | 25c | 6,483$1,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,613.32 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 37c | 6,480$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.82 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…48c1backed Yes | 7c | 5,650$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa48e…b476backed Yes | 32c | 5,363$1,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.97 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d47…1908backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1da9…3710backed No | 68c | 4,921$3,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,595.39 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…e4cfbacked No | 50c | 4,467$2,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,211.03 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…0c28backed No | 64c | 4,355$2,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,551.09 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 79c | 4,333$3,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.15 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0c…6b78backed No | 32c | 4,166$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,821.98 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e50…487bbacked No | 19c | 4,090$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,304.59 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc0…d2cebacked Yes | 29c | 4,033$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a7…aa8ebacked Yes | 25c | 4,005$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…245bbacked Yes | 27c | 3,704$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…24c4backed No | 44c | 3,699$1,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,059.19 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb33…c377backed No | 60c | 3,588$2,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,432.48 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa553…6236backed Yes | 32c | 3,322$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.8 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed Yes | 26c | 3,309$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.58 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…f0fdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,249$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fb…89cebacked No | 74c | 3,091$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a3…5249backed Yes | 39c | 3,080$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.89 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1b…728cbacked Yes | 27c | 2,963$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa90…eddbbacked Yes | 34c | 2,907$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa381…e40abacked Yes | 7c | 2,772$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed Yes | 32c | 2,751$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.21 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…dc17backed Yes | 73c | 2,723$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 71c | 2,650$1,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.42 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 59c | 2,592$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.94 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 16c | 2,548$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.14 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd0…e582backed Yes | 26c | 2,536$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af5…2470backed Yes | 80c | 2,500$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c3…d4b9backed Yes | 10c | 2,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f7…2294backed No | 33c | 2,231$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 65c | 2,223$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.17 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…d5ddbacked No | 29c | 2,144$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,522.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes | 48c | 2,134$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.98 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…6beabacked Yes | 1c | 2,100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9826…a269backed Yes | 52c | 2,093$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…b335backed Yes | 25c | 2,080$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x266a…90c3backed Yes | 31c | 2,077$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c3…da06backed Yes | 19c | 2,048$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.8 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…1a67backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7e…23ebbacked No | 76c | 2,000$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…d332backed No | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…e62abacked Yes | 32c | 2,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.99 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4b…171fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,992$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe4…ff36backed Yes | 32c | 1,968$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…76a8backed No | 29c | 1,950$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 21cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7692…9df6backed No | 29c | 1,936$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,374.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe18…e8e8backed Yes | 23c | 1,930$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a97…40e1backed No | 10c | 1,909$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,713.12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +269.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7f…253fbacked No | 28c | 1,882$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…a88fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,880$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…0099backed Yes | 35c | 1,810$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +312.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…0b02backed No | 16c | 1,796$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.13 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x761f…9fa9backed No | 27c | 1,783$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,301.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +539.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc2…9271backed No | 75c | 1,732$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.91 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a4…0ea6backed Yes | 10c | 1,727$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f6…792cbacked No | 27c | 1,698$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70e8…5085backed Yes | 74c | 1,690$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b1…609cbacked No | 30c | 1,653$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5202…3102backed No | 27c | 1,637$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,194.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0213…f7e3backed No | 29c | 1,603$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.65 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…f43cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,600$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x953c…bd37backed No | 27c | 1,570$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ad…0eefbacked No | 29c | 1,564$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c0…911dbacked Yes | 34c | 1,550$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9658…26fbbacked No | 29c | 1,550$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa901…d418backed Yes | 1c | 1,548$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3db…7e9fbacked No | 25c | 1,537$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +546.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde8e…9603backed Yes | 17c | 1,525$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.3 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73c1…3a54backed Yes | 37c | 1,525$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch?this page
- Kinetiq FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Kinetiq FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- Kinetiq FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.