TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$830,006
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$809,306

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $830,006 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 518 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x24aa…c32cbacked Yes68c64,833$43,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,898.0240%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf84…4ab2backed Yes0c47,097$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-44.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57e4…835ebacked No66c46,632$30,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,901.587759.7%46 W · 31 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc628…54f0backed No65c34,364$22,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,865.491275%9 W · 3 L+4.1wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+114.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd6f1…11eebacked Yes34c33,000$11,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,219666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+397.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80f0…68e1backed No33c21,164$6,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,174.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+63.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed Yes7c17,403$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.3613422.4%30 W · 104 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+175.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3529…a6d9backed Yes56c16,154$9,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,036.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb50…be06backed No47c14,828$6,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,928.32475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+34.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0aa3…3044backed Yes35c14,030$4,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,952.685431.5%17 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c12,564$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.27663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9564…3a32backed No70c11,227$7,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,318.933636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8892…ec13backed No77c11,035$8,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,535.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb8…82e6backed Yes1c10,885$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.061118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick26cpaid+94.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a09…e317backed No30c10,664$3,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,485.072684.6%22 W · 4 L+9.8wins+0.38per pick47cpaid+125.5%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x6fef…8a8fbacked No13c10,063$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,781.121650%8 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+66.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes4c10,000$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4386217.7%11 W · 51 L+0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x910d…5a46backed Yes2c9,798$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002814.3%4 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacfc…f09dbacked Yes53c9,379$4,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,946.53520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-69.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes35c9,081$3,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,170.112740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-22.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd8bf…c6e3backed No24c9,057$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,906.36742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+30.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6f…b0a7backed Yes34c8,441$2,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,831.72728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-31%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf82c…0f6fbacked Yes8c7,762$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.292250%11 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28ba…4e57backed No72c7,569$5,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,101.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21fc…60dcbacked Yes45c7,526$3,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,386.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc4c…392fbacked No70c7,452$5,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,249.191040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4db7…d20ebacked Yes24c6,974$1,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,686.794161%25 W · 16 L+6.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+102.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc452…7234backed No73c6,628$4,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,774.781741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe210…b956backed Yes25c6,483$1,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,613.32922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes37c6,480$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.829747.4%46 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd569…48c1backed Yes7c5,650$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4074334.9%15 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa48e…b476backed Yes32c5,363$1,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,728.972321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-43%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d47…1908backed Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick30cpaid+24.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1da9…3710backed No68c4,921$3,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,595.393560%21 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf94c…e4cfbacked No50c4,467$2,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,211.03911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-78%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7712…0c28backed No64c4,355$2,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,551.092951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d26…a7d1backed No79c4,333$3,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.159645.8%44 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d0c…6b78backed No32c4,166$1,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,821.982835.7%10 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e50…487bbacked No19c4,090$786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,304.591844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fc0…d2cebacked Yes29c4,033$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.291040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-32.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x76a7…aa8ebacked Yes25c4,005$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca5a…245bbacked Yes27c3,704$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x129b…24c4backed No44c3,699$1,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,059.195851.7%30 W · 28 L+6.7wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeb33…c377backed No60c3,588$2,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,432.481675%12 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa553…6236backed Yes32c3,322$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.81612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.24per pick37cpaid-79.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa43f…fc07backed Yes26c3,309$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.585712.3%7 W · 50 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04db…f0fdbacked Yes1c3,249$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.66280%0 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x50fb…89cebacked No74c3,091$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.32475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76a3…5249backed Yes39c3,080$1,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,187.891127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae1b…728cbacked Yes27c2,963$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa90…eddbbacked Yes34c2,907$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa381…e40abacked Yes7c2,772$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+53.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0164…9ed6backed Yes32c2,751$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.213148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac3f…dc17backed Yes73c2,723$1,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,989.74425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No71c2,650$1,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.4217859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed No59c2,592$1,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.9415362.7%96 W · 57 L+22.4wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes16c2,548$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.1490%0 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2fd0…e582backed Yes26c2,536$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.8740%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0af5…2470backed Yes80c2,500$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9991553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16c3…d4b9backed Yes10c2,500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502528%7 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid+30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07f7…2294backed No33c2,231$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,490.21560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+24.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed No65c2,223$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.1714437.5%54 W · 90 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9337…d5ddbacked No29c2,144$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+72.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes48c2,134$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.984544.4%20 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74d7…6beabacked Yes1c2,100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-64.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9826…a269backed Yes52c2,093$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4113…b335backed Yes25c2,080$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.0730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x266a…90c3backed Yes31c2,077$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.211040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28c3…da06backed Yes19c2,048$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.81827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-0.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x464e…1a67backed Yes14c2,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2801258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+30.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b7e…23ebbacked No76c2,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4807100%7 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa60e…d332backed No77c2,000$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4601258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb67…e62abacked Yes32c2,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.991926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-61.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c4b…171fbacked Yes2c1,992$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fe4…ff36backed Yes32c1,968$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.18714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick41cpaid-68.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf225…76a8backed No29c1,950$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,384.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick21cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7692…9df6backed No29c1,936$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,374.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+72.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe18…e8e8backed Yes23c1,930$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a97…40e1backed No10c1,909$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,713.124100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+269.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f7f…253fbacked No28c1,882$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,355.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+78.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x08cc…a88fbacked Yes21c1,880$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe166…0099backed Yes35c1,810$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.4933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+312.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa2…0b02backed No16c1,796$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.131643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+58.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x761f…9fa9backed No27c1,783$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,301.522100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+539.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4cc2…9271backed No75c1,732$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.914731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc7a4…0ea6backed Yes10c1,727$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33f6…792cbacked No27c1,698$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70e8…5085backed Yes74c1,690$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9b1…609cbacked No30c1,653$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,156.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5202…3102backed No27c1,637$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0213…f7e3backed No29c1,603$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.652642.3%11 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+24%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x713b…f43cbacked Yes19c1,600$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick36cpaid-78.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x953c…bd37backed No27c1,570$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,146.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x85ad…0eefbacked No29c1,564$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13c0…911dbacked Yes34c1,550$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5321844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+41.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9658…26fbbacked No29c1,550$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+72.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa901…d418backed Yes1c1,548$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.622619.2%5 W · 21 L-4.0wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-63.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd3db…7e9fbacked No25c1,537$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.983100%3 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+546.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xde8e…9603backed Yes17c1,525$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.31428.6%4 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73c1…3a54backed Yes37c1,525$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.