Token Launches · resolved market
Kinetiq FDV above $50M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x318015b4bd65a0ba4169e1b2bd649d3f975f039a6cf07df6fdd9ae86390d3d6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $391,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $377,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $391,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc89c…36f6backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…8221backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b6…86abbacked No | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed No | 0c | 22,222$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 0c | 21,538$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 6,033$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.18 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…f0fdbacked No | 0c | 5,146$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf68…474ebacked No | 2c | 5,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4c…de5bbacked No | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 0c | 4,522$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 8c | 4,299$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.04 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…24c4backed No | 2c | 4,169$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed No | 1c | 3,300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd626…89cebacked No | 1c | 2,922$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfef3…a66dbacked No | 1c | 2,649$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf11d…9c59backed No | 4c | 2,415$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735b…bbf3backed No | 0c | 2,389$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…0b02backed No | 6c | 2,310$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.05 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515a…1055backed No | 2c | 1,966$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cef…c3ccbacked No | 1c | 1,961$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +525%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7a…3de0backed No | 1c | 1,785$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0c…6b78backed No | 2c | 1,530$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49a6…7049backed No | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0213…f7e3backed No | 1c | 1,423$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d2…2ef7backed No | 1c | 999.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9b…7a04backed No | 2c | 919.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…3aa8backed No | 3c | 912.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab58…b07dbacked No | 1c | 889.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed No | 9c | 825.02$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4d…181fbacked No | 15c | 667.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…4434backed No | 5c | 640$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked No | 3c | 585.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed No | 4c | 529$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c68…1b1fbacked No | 5c | 490.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8f…1ee8backed No | 4c | 311.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44fa…ddabbacked No | 7c | 275.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed No | 9c | 169$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kinetiq FDV above $50M one day after launch?this page
- Kinetiq FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Kinetiq FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- Kinetiq FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.